Stanislaus County, California
Latest: 2024
Leans Republican — shifted 11.8pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 40 presidential elections on record
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 36.3% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(16) | 50.0% |
▶Black / African American(11) | 2.7% |
▶Asian(6) | 6.1% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 1.8% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(4) | 1.4% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(6) | 0.7% |
Multiracial / Other | 2.8% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 21.0% | 54.2% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 11.3% | 29.3% |
| Other | 4.9% | 12.6% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 2.2% | 5.7% |
| Mainline Protestant | 0.9% | 2.3% |
| Black Protestant | 0.5% | 1.2% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| Non-religious | 61.3% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+11.0 |
| 2020 | Biden+0.8 |
| 2016 | Clinton+1.8 |
| 2012 | Obama+2.7 |
| 2008 | Obama+1.7 |
| 2004 | Bush+18.3 |
| 2000 | Bush+8.4 |
| 1996 | Clinton+1.1 |
| 1992 | Clinton+4.0 |
Stanislaus, California is a county that has a population of 553,990. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+11.0. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 43.2% | 54.2% | R+11.0 | R+11.8 |
| 2020 | 49.3% | 48.5% | D+0.8 | R+1.0 |
| 2016 | 46.8% | 45.0% | D+1.8 | R+0.9 |
| 2012 | 49.9% | 47.1% | D+2.7 | D+1.0 |
| 2008 | 49.7% | 48.0% | D+1.7 | D+20.0 |
| 2004 | 40.4% | 58.6% | R+18.3 | R+9.9 |
| 2000 | 44.0% | 52.4% | R+8.4 | R+9.5 |
| 1996 | 45.9% | 44.8% | D+1.1 | R+2.9 |
| 1992 | 40.9% | 36.9% | D+4.0 | D+11.2 |
| 1988 | 45.9% | 53.1% | R+7.2 | D+12.2 |
| 1984 | 39.9% | 59.2% | R+19.4 | R+10.0 |
| 1980 | 40.0% | 49.4% | R+9.4 | R+16.9 |
| 1976 | 52.3% | 44.8% | D+7.5 | D+13.4 |
| 1972 | 45.5% | 51.4% | R+5.9 | R+8.6 |
| 1968 | 48.1% | 45.5% | D+2.7 | R+29.7 |
| 1964 | 66.1% | 33.7% | D+32.4 | D+32.3 |
| 1960 | 49.8% | 49.6% | D+0.1 | R+2.3 |
| 1956 | 51.0% | 48.6% | D+2.5 | D+13.9 |
| 1952 | 43.7% | 55.2% | R+11.4 | R+10.9 |
| 1948 | 47.8% | 48.4% | R+0.6 | — |
What defines Stanislaus?
Stanislaus has been trending Republican — 14pp redder over the last 4 presidential cycles. It has a majority-minority electorate where racial demographics are the primary driver of partisan lean. Voter engagement runs low — in the bottom 15% of peers for turnout in 2024.
County in State Context
Ask the Historian
Explore this county's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- The 2020 election was decided by just 0.8 points — razor-thin
- Swung 11.8 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2020, Republicans in 2024
Located In
Stanislaus sits inside these higher-level geographies.