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Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto

Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto

Latest: 2024↓ R+7.3 vs 2020

Leans Democratic — shifted 7.3pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 4.7M residents — 16 counties

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Race & ancestry
Group%
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)
42.9%
▶Hispanic / Latino(19)
30.0%
▶Black / African American(14)
6.4%
▶Asian(6)
13.9%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11)
1.1%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(4)
1.1%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(7)
0.7%
Multiracial / Other
5.1%
View full demographics →
Religious adherence
Tradition% Pop% Adherents
Catholic17.5%48.0%
Evangelical Protestant10.1%27.8%
Other6.4%17.5%
LDS (Mormon)2.6%7.2%
Mainline Protestant1.3%3.5%
Black Protestant0.9%2.6%
Orthodox Christian0.2%0.7%
Non-religious63.5%—
View full religion →
Presidential results
YearResult
2024Harris+5.7
2020Biden+13.0
2016Clinton+11.5
2012Obama+8.2
2008Obama+9.6
2004Bush+7.2
2000Bush+3.3
1996Clinton+2.8
1992Clinton+5.4
View full election history →

Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto is a media market that has a population of 4,701,802. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+5.7. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.

Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto Presidential Election Results, 1948–2024
YearDem %Rep %MarginSwing
202451.3%45.6%D+5.7R+7.3
202055.3%42.3%D+13.0D+1.5
201651.6%40.0%D+11.5D+3.3
201252.6%44.4%D+8.2R+1.4
200853.6%44.0%D+9.6D+16.8
200445.8%53.0%R+7.2R+3.9
200045.9%49.2%R+3.3R+6.1
199646.4%43.6%D+2.8R+2.6
199241.6%36.2%D+5.4D+12.2
198845.9%52.7%R+6.8D+10.2
198440.9%57.8%R+16.9R+3.7
198037.6%50.9%R+13.3R+19.0
197651.4%45.6%D+5.8D+12.1
197244.9%51.3%R+6.3R+10.6
196847.9%43.6%D+4.3R+25.1
196464.6%35.3%D+29.4D+23.4
196052.8%46.8%D+6.0D+3.4
195651.1%48.6%D+2.5D+7.2
195247.3%52.0%R+4.7R+16.3
194853.9%42.3%D+11.6—
Political Identity

What defines Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto?

Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (5D, 1R) — a genuine swing geography. It has a plurality-minority electorate (57% nonwhite) where demographic change is reshaping the political map.

Constituent Counties

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Similarity Explorer

Similar media markets

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
8 visible matches
Constituent Geography

Counties in Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
CountyPop.MarginDemRepTotalShare
Sacramento1.6M
D+19.7
381,564252,140656,62633.3%
San Joaquin797K
R+0.9
126,647128,996263,67113.4%
Stanislaus554K
R+11.0
85,347106,986197,47210.0%
Solano452K
D+23.0
113,99770,345189,8349.6%
Placer419K
R+8.5
103,958123,941234,80911.9%
Yolo221K
D+36.7
61,40527,84491,3734.6%
El Dorado193K
R+12.0
47,70361,109111,8905.7%
Nevada102K
D+12.2
33,78426,17762,1323.1%
Sutter99K
R+31.6
13,01625,37239,0482.0%
Yuba85K
R+26.1
10,72518,49129,8171.5%
Tuolumne54K
R+22.0
10,90917,21028,6381.5%
Calaveras46K
R+28.1
9,18116,62526,4801.3%
Amador41K
R+27.8
7,78314,01822,4031.1%
Colusa22K
R+28.2
2,4314,4147,0210.4%
Plumas19K
R+16.9
4,0205,72510,0670.5%
Sierra3K
R+24.2
6411,0661,7540.1%
16 countiesTotal votes: 1,973,035
Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto's political evolution with the Historian
Automated Readout

Key Insights

High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
  • Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
  • Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2024, Republicans in 2004
  • Turnout decreased by 4.0 percentage points since the previous presidential election
Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Sacramnto-Stkton-ModestoCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
Expand rows for ancestry detail
White (Non-Hispanic) 42.9%Hispanic 30.0%Asian 13.9%Black 6.4%Multiracial 5.1%Native American 1.1%Native Hawaiian 0.7%
GroupLocalNational
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)
42.9%57.4%
▶Hispanic / Latino(19)
30.0%19.3%
▶Asian(6)
13.9%6.0%
▶Black / African American(14)
6.4%12.2%
Multiracial / Other
5.1%4.0%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(4)
1.1%0.9%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11)
1.1%0.9%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(7)
0.7%0.2%
Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:
36.4%(1.7M people)
U.S. Religion Census 2020
Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: +15.7pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.

Tradition% Pop% AdherentsUS PopUS Adherents
Catholic
17.5%48.0%——
Evangelical Protestant
10.1%27.8%——
Other
6.4%17.5%——
LDS (Mormon)
2.6%7.2%——
Mainline Protestant
1.3%3.5%——
Black Protestant
0.9%2.6%——
Orthodox Christian
0.2%0.7%——
Non-religiousPopulation
63.5%———
Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Who lives in the Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto media market? 4,701,802 residents across 16 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto vs National4.7M residents
Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population
Local vs state vs U.S.
4.7M
local
4.7MNational 334.9M
Share of U.S. population
Local vs state vs U.S.
1.40%
local
1.40%National 100%
Voting-age population
Local vs state vs U.S.
75.0%
local
75.0%National 75.7%
Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income
Local vs state vs U.S.
$93,641
local
$93,641National $83,960
Poverty rate
Local vs state vs U.S.
11.8%
local
11.8%National 12.5%
College degree
Local vs state vs U.S.
30.7%
local
30.7%National 35.6%
Homeownership
Local vs state vs U.S.
63.6%
local
63.6%National 65.2%
Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age
Local vs state vs U.S.
38.2 yrs
local
38.2 yrsNational 39.1 yrs
Age 18–29
Local vs state vs U.S.
15.4%
local
15.4%National 15.7%
Age 65+
Local vs state vs U.S.
16.5%
local
16.5%National 17.0%
Foreign born
Local vs state vs U.S.
19.9%
local
19.9%National 14.1%
Non-English at home
Local vs state vs U.S.
32.4%
local
32.4%National 22.2%
English only
Local vs state vs U.S.
67.6%
local
67.6%National 77.8%
Voter Turnout

Turnout in Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
2024 Turnout
55.9%
vs Previous
-4.0pp
Voting-Age Pop
3,526,787
History
1988–2024
Competitiveness

How competitive is Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto?

Likely DAvg margin: D+10.1 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+9.6
2012
D+8.2
2016
D+11.5
2020
D+13.0
2024
D+5.7
Elasticity
7.3pp
margin range
Party Flips
2
last 30 years
5-Elec Avg
D+9.6
Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
ConsistencyHeavy splitting (0/100)
2024 Office Comparisons
OfficesMargin AMargin BSplit
President vs SenateD+5.7D+3.62.1pp
Average divergence across office pairs: 29.8pp
Containing Geography

Located In

Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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