Competitive — shifted 15.3pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 35 presidential elections on record
POPULATION
427K
COMPETITIVENESS
Likely D
2024 PRES
R+1.4
TURNOUT
53.5%
#63 in state
MEDIAN INCOME
$73K
COLLEGE+
30%
Place Story
Leans Democratic
Demographically distinctive: 56% Hispanic (+37pp vs national)
Ticket-splitting: Senate ran 31.0pp ahead of Governor
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Catholic edge: 14pp over Evangelicals
Correlates nationally with Democratic-leaning behavior.
Contextual statewide polling for Florida. County pages stay rooted in county returns, but live statewide polling helps frame the current cycle.
Ashley Moody leads at 44.5%
Byron Donalds leads at 43.5%