Safe Democratic — shifted 3.3pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 40 presidential elections on record
POPULATION
714K
COMPETITIVENESS
Safe D
2024 PRES
D+20.7
TURNOUT
58.9%
#93 in state
MEDIAN INCOME
$110K
COLLEGE+
48%
Place Story
Catholic edge: 46pp over Evangelicals
Correlates nationally with Democratic-leaning behavior.
Ticket-splitting: President ran 42.2pp behind Senate
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Demographically distinctive: 48% college+ (+12pp vs national)
Contextual statewide polling for Illinois. County pages stay rooted in county returns, but live statewide polling helps frame the current cycle.
Raja Krishnamoorthi leads at 32.1%