Chicago
Latest: 2024
Safe Democratic — shifted 7.7pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 9.7M residents — 16 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 50.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 23.6% |
▶Black / African American(15) | 15.8% |
▶Asian(6) | 7.1% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 1.2% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.8% |
Multiracial / Other | 2.5% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 28.6% | 54.3% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 8.4% | 16.0% |
| Other | 7.5% | 14.1% |
| Mainline Protestant | 3.8% | 7.3% |
| Black Protestant | 3.6% | 6.9% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.7% | 1.4% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.3% | 0.7% |
| Non-religious | 47.3% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+23.1 |
| 2020 | Biden+30.8 |
| 2016 | Clinton+32.0 |
| 2012 | Obama+28.4 |
| 2008 | Obama+35.1 |
| 2004 | Kerry+20.0 |
| 2000 | Gore+20.3 |
| 1996 | Clinton+23.6 |
| 1992 | Clinton+16.6 |
Chicago is a media market that has a population of 9,698,861. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+23.1. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 60.5% | 37.3% | D+23.1 | R+7.7 |
| 2020 | 64.4% | 33.6% | D+30.8 | R+1.1 |
| 2016 | 62.9% | 30.9% | D+32.0 | D+3.6 |
| 2012 | 63.4% | 35.0% | D+28.4 | R+6.7 |
| 2008 | 66.9% | 31.9% | D+35.1 | D+15.1 |
| 2004 | 59.6% | 39.7% | D+20.0 | R+0.3 |
| 2000 | 59.1% | 38.8% | D+20.3 | R+3.3 |
| 1996 | 57.7% | 34.1% | D+23.6 | D+7.1 |
| 1992 | 50.1% | 33.5% | D+16.6 | D+17.0 |
| 1988 | 49.4% | 49.9% | R+0.5 | D+8.7 |
| 1984 | 45.1% | 54.3% | R+9.1 | R+7.8 |
| 1980 | 45.0% | 46.3% | R+1.3 | R+1.1 |
| 1976 | 49.0% | 49.1% | R+0.2 | D+15.6 |
| 1972 | 41.9% | 57.6% | R+15.8 | R+17.1 |
| 1968 | 46.1% | 44.8% | D+1.3 | R+19.2 |
| 1964 | 60.2% | 39.7% | D+20.5 | D+13.7 |
| 1960 | 53.3% | 46.5% | D+6.8 | D+25.7 |
| 1956 | 40.5% | 59.5% | R+19.0 | R+13.2 |
| 1952 | 47.0% | 52.7% | R+5.8 | R+10.0 |
| 1948 | 51.7% | 47.5% | D+4.2 | — |
What defines Chicago?
It has a racially mixed, moderately educated electorate — the suburban swing demographic that decides close elections.
Constituent Counties
Similar media markets
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose
Educated rural democratic
Philadelphia
Educated rural competitive
New York
Educated rural democratic
Washington, DC (Hagerstown)
Educated rural democratic
Los Angeles
Educated rural democratic
Boston (Manchester)
Educated rural democratic
Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto
Educated rural democratic
Providence-New Bedford
Educated rural competitive
Counties in Chicago
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cook | 5.2M | D+41.5 | 1,447,821 | 583,852 | 2,079,239 | 49.9% |
| DuPage | 930K | D+13.1 | 251,164 | 191,243 | 456,882 | 11.0% |
| Lake | 714K | D+20.7 | 184,642 | 120,402 | 310,913 | 7.5% |
| Will | 701K | D+1.6 | 162,874 | 157,672 | 327,604 | 7.9% |
| Kane | 517K | D+9.3 | 120,077 | 99,260 | 223,534 | 5.4% |
| Lake | 500K | D+5.6 | 109,086 | 97,270 | 209,551 | 5.0% |
| McHenry | 313K | R+5.3 | 75,370 | 83,933 | 162,283 | 3.9% |
| Porter | 175K | R+10.5 | 37,213 | 46,109 | 84,969 | 2.0% |
| Kendall | 138K | D+1.5 | 32,977 | 31,970 | 66,397 | 1.6% |
| LaPorte | 112K | R+14.1 | 20,007 | 26,726 | 47,553 | 1.1% |
| LaSalle | 109K | R+18.4 | 21,029 | 30,717 | 52,508 | 1.3% |
| Kankakee | 107K | R+20.8 | 18,399 | 28,285 | 47,569 | 1.1% |
| DeKalb | 101K | D+2.0 | 23,648 | 22,716 | 47,401 | 1.1% |
| Grundy | 53K | R+29.5 | 9,143 | 16,997 | 26,589 | 0.6% |
| Jasper | 33K | R+54.3 | 3,489 | 12,082 | 15,826 | 0.4% |
| Newton | 14K | R+57.0 | 1,370 | 5,131 | 6,601 | 0.2% |
16 countiesTotal votes: 4,165,419
Ask the Historian
Explore Chicago's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Democratic landslide with a 23.1% margin
- Split-ticket voting in 2024: Different parties won President and Senate
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Chicago | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 50.2% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 23.6% | 19.3% |
▶Black / African American(15) | 15.8% | 12.2% |
▶Asian(6) | 7.1% | 6.0% |
Multiracial / Other | 2.5% | 4.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 1.2% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.8% | 0.9% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
52.7%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +33.9pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.6% | 54.3% | — | — | |
| 8.4% | 16.0% | — | — | |
| 7.5% | 14.1% | — | — | |
| 3.8% | 7.3% | — | — | |
| 3.6% | 6.9% | — | — | |
| 0.7% | 1.4% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.3% | 0.7% | — | — |
Non-religiousPopulation | 47.3% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Chicago media market? 9,698,861 residents across 16 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
41% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 8pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+16 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
9.7M
Share of U.S. population
2.90%
Voting-age population
76.3%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$90,617
Poverty rate
11.3%
College degree
40.9%
Homeownership
65.8%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
38.7 yrs
Age 18–29
15.8%
Age 65+
16.1%
Foreign born
18.1%
Non-English at home
29.8%
English only
70.2%
Turnout in Chicago
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
56.3%
-4.6pp
7,403,139
1988–2024
How competitive is Chicago?
Safe DAvg margin: D+28.6 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+35.1
2012
D+28.4
2016
D+32.0
2020
D+30.8
2024
D+23.1
11.9pp
0
D+29.9
Do voters in Chicago split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (0/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | D+23.1 | R+2.7 | 25.8pp |
| President vs Governor | D+23.1 | D+0.1 | 23.0pp |
| Senate vs Governor | R+2.7 | D+0.1 | 2.8pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 17.8pp
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