Competitive — shifted 6.7pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 40 presidential elections on record
POPULATION
701K
COMPETITIVENESS
Lean D
2024 PRES
D+1.6
TURNOUT
62.1%
#77 in state
MEDIAN INCOME
$110K
COLLEGE+
37%
Place Story
Leans Democratic since 2008
Competitive with a modest baseline — persuasion matters on the margin.
Catholic edge: 33pp over Evangelicals
Correlates nationally with Democratic-leaning behavior.
Ticket-splitting: President ran 42.3pp behind Senate
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Contextual statewide polling for Illinois. County pages stay rooted in county returns, but live statewide polling helps frame the current cycle.
Raja Krishnamoorthi leads at 32.1%