
Safe Democratic — shifted 6.0pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 40 presidential elections on record
POPULATION
1.6M
COMPETITIVENESS
Safe D
2024 PRES
D+39.2
TURNOUT
64.6%
#8 in state
MEDIAN INCOME
$131K
COLLEGE+
60%
Place Story
Demographically distinctive: 60% college+ (+24pp vs national)
Catholic edge: 67pp over Evangelicals
Correlates nationally with Democratic-leaning behavior.
Ticket-splitting: Senate ran 83.7pp ahead of Governor
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.