
Safe Democratic — shifted 7.8pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 40 presidential elections on record
POPULATION
730K
COMPETITIVENESS
Safe D
2024 PRES
D+28.5
TURNOUT
68.7%
#6 in state
MEDIAN INCOME
$131K
COLLEGE+
59%
Place Story
Catholic edge: 73pp over Evangelicals
Correlates nationally with Democratic-leaning behavior.
Ticket-splitting: Senate ran 91.4pp ahead of Governor
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Demographically distinctive: 59% college+ (+23pp vs national)