
Safe Democratic — shifted 11.1pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 40 presidential elections on record
POPULATION
785K
COMPETITIVENESS
Safe D
2024 PRES
D+52.1
TURNOUT
48.9%
#14 in state
MEDIAN INCOME
$96K
COLLEGE+
51%
Place Story
Catholic edge: 61pp over Evangelicals
Correlates nationally with Democratic-leaning behavior.
Ticket-splitting: Senate ran 61.3pp ahead of Governor
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Demographically distinctive: 51% college+ (+15pp vs national)