Safe Republican — shifted 4.9pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 40 presidential elections on record
POPULATION
30K
COMPETITIVENESS
Safe R
2024 PRES
R+35.1
TURNOUT
75.1%
#47 in state
MEDIAN INCOME
$71K
COLLEGE+
17%
Place Story
Demographically distinctive: 87% non-Hispanic white (+30pp vs national)
Ticket-splitting: President ran 31.8pp behind Senate
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Catholic edge: 27pp over Evangelicals
Correlates nationally with Democratic-leaning behavior.