Safe Republican — shifted 4.8pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 40 presidential elections on record
POPULATION
15K
COMPETITIVENESS
Safe R
2024 PRES
R+41.3
TURNOUT
74.7%
#52 in state
MEDIAN INCOME
$71K
COLLEGE+
18%
Place Story
Demographically distinctive: 85% non-Hispanic white (+28pp vs national)
Ticket-splitting: President ran 46.5pp behind Senate
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Catholic edge: 13pp over Evangelicals
Correlates nationally with Democratic-leaning behavior.