Leans Democratic — 40 presidential elections on record
POPULATION
276K
COMPETITIVENESS
Lean D
2024 PRES
D+8.9
TURNOUT
82.0%
#7 in state
MEDIAN INCOME
$115K
COLLEGE+
49%
Place Story
Leans Democratic since 2008
Competitive with a modest baseline — persuasion matters on the margin.
Ticket-splitting: President ran 30.6pp behind Senate
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Catholic edge: 27pp over Evangelicals
Correlates nationally with Democratic-leaning behavior.
Demographically distinctive: 77% non-Hispanic white (+20pp vs national)