Leans Democratic — shifted 7.3pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 40 presidential elections on record
POPULATION
77K
COMPETITIVENESS
Likely D
2024 PRES
D+9.9
TURNOUT
76.0%
#6 in state
MEDIAN INCOME
$83K
COLLEGE+
36%
Place Story
Leans Democratic since 1992
Demographically distinctive: 91% non-Hispanic white (+34pp vs national)
Ticket-splitting: Senate ran 40.9pp ahead of Governor
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Catholic edge: 29pp over Evangelicals
Correlates nationally with Democratic-leaning behavior.
Contextual statewide polling for New Hampshire. County pages stay rooted in county returns, but live statewide polling helps frame the current cycle.
Chris Pappas leads at 45.6%
Kelly Ayotte leads at 45.5%