Leans Democratic — shifted 4.6pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 40 presidential elections on record
POPULATION
156K
COMPETITIVENESS
Lean D
2024 PRES
D+5.2
TURNOUT
76.7%
#5 in state
MEDIAN INCOME
$97K
COLLEGE+
39%
Place Story
Leans Democratic since 1992
Competitive with a modest baseline — persuasion matters on the margin.
Demographically distinctive: 90% non-Hispanic white (+33pp vs national)
Catholic edge: 44pp over Evangelicals
Correlates nationally with Democratic-leaning behavior.
Ticket-splitting: Senate ran 52.6pp behind Governor
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Contextual statewide polling for New Hampshire. County pages stay rooted in county returns, but live statewide polling helps frame the current cycle.
Chris Pappas leads at 45.6%
Kelly Ayotte leads at 45.5%