Leans Democratic — shifted 3.2pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 40 presidential elections on record
POPULATION
133K
COMPETITIVENESS
Likely D
2024 PRES
D+12.0
TURNOUT
75.9%
#7 in state
MEDIAN INCOME
$89K
COLLEGE+
39%
Place Story
Leans Democratic since 1992
Demographically distinctive: 88% non-Hispanic white (+30pp vs national)
Catholic edge: 36pp over Evangelicals
Correlates nationally with Democratic-leaning behavior.
Ticket-splitting: Senate ran 49.0pp ahead of Governor
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Contextual statewide polling for New Hampshire. County pages stay rooted in county returns, but live statewide polling helps frame the current cycle.
Chris Pappas leads at 45.6%
Kelly Ayotte leads at 45.5%