Safe Republican — shifted 6.3pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 40 presidential elections on record
POPULATION
348K
COMPETITIVENESS
Safe R
2024 PRES
R+33.6
TURNOUT
60.1%
#33 in state
MEDIAN INCOME
$66K
COLLEGE+
25%
Place Story
Evangelical edge: 60pp over Catholics
Correlates nationally with Republican-leaning behavior.
Ticket-splitting: Senate ran 32.5pp behind Governor
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Demographically distinctive: 25% college+ (-11pp vs national)