Safe Republican — shifted 8.2pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 40 presidential elections on record
POPULATION
27K
COMPETITIVENESS
Safe R
2024 PRES
R+32.7
TURNOUT
58.7%
#38 in state
MEDIAN INCOME
$42K
COLLEGE+
15%
Place Story
Evangelical edge: 68pp over Catholics
Correlates nationally with Republican-leaning behavior.
Ticket-splitting: Senate ran 32.1pp behind Governor
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Demographically distinctive: 15% college+ (-21pp vs national)