Jefferson County, Texas
Latest: 2024
Leans Republican — shifted 7.3pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 39 presidential elections on record
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 36.3% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(16) | 24.1% |
▶Black / African American(11) | 33.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 3.8% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(8) | 0.2% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.6% |
Multiracial / Other | 2.1% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 26.4% | 37.8% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 25.5% | 36.4% |
| Black Protestant | 9.8% | 14.0% |
| Mainline Protestant | 4.2% | 6.1% |
| Other | 3.9% | 5.6% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.5% | 2.2% |
| Non-religious | 30.1% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+8.9 |
| 2020 | Trump+1.6 |
| 2016 | Trump+0.5 |
| 2012 | Obama+1.6 |
| 2008 | Obama+2.2 |
| 2004 | Kerry+2.9 |
| 2000 | Gore+5.9 |
| 1996 | Clinton+15.4 |
| 1992 | Clinton+19.7 |
Jefferson, Texas is a county that has a population of 253,878. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+8.9. Akashic Edge tracks 39 presidential elections here, dating back to 1872.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 45.1% | 54.0% | R+8.9 | R+7.3 |
| 2020 | 48.6% | 50.2% | R+1.6 | R+1.1 |
| 2016 | 48.4% | 48.9% | R+0.5 | R+2.1 |
| 2012 | 50.3% | 48.7% | D+1.6 | R+0.6 |
| 2008 | 50.8% | 48.5% | D+2.2 | R+0.6 |
| 2004 | 51.2% | 48.4% | D+2.9 | R+3.0 |
| 2000 | 52.2% | 46.4% | D+5.9 | R+9.6 |
| 1996 | 54.3% | 38.9% | D+15.4 | R+4.2 |
| 1992 | 50.7% | 31.0% | D+19.7 | R+2.0 |
| 1988 | 60.7% | 39.0% | D+21.7 | D+12.0 |
| 1984 | 54.7% | 45.0% | D+9.7 | R+0.8 |
| 1980 | 53.9% | 43.5% | D+10.5 | R+8.3 |
| 1976 | 59.1% | 40.3% | D+18.8 | D+39.8 |
| 1972 | 39.4% | 60.4% | R+21.0 | R+26.1 |
| 1968 | 38.6% | 33.4% | D+5.2 | R+16.3 |
| 1964 | 60.6% | 39.1% | D+21.5 | D+5.6 |
| 1960 | 57.6% | 41.8% | D+15.8 | D+24.9 |
| 1956 | 45.2% | 54.3% | R+9.1 | R+16.4 |
| 1952 | 53.6% | 46.3% | D+7.3 | R+42.6 |
| 1948 | 67.1% | 17.2% | D+49.9 | — |
What defines Jefferson?
Jefferson has been trending Republican — 10pp redder over the last 4 presidential cycles. It has a majority-minority electorate where racial demographics are the primary driver of partisan lean.
County in State Context
Current Texas Polling
Contextual statewide polling for Texas. County pages stay rooted in county returns, but live statewide polling helps frame the current cycle.
2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary
Jasmine Crockett leads at 47.8%
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Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- The 2016 election was decided by just 0.5 points — razor-thin
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2012, Republicans in 2024
- Shifted 10.5 points toward Republicans over the last 4 elections