How did AZ-03, Arizona vote in the 2024 presidential election?

AZ-03, Arizona voted Democratic in 2024 with a margin of D+25.6. The Democratic candidate received 302,170 votes and the Republican candidate received 177,645 out of 486,501 total votes cast, a 12.1-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is AZ-03, Arizona's political history?

AZ-03, Arizona has 5 presidential elections on record, spanning 2008 to 2024. It has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 2008. The largest single-election swing was 12.1 points in 2024.

What are the demographics of AZ-03, Arizona?

AZ-03, Arizona has a population of 815,927 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 19.1% non-Hispanic white, 63.2% Hispanic, 10.8% Black. About 20% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $68,202.

Which places are most similar to AZ-03, Arizona?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar congressional districts to AZ-03, Arizona are TX-35, TX-33, TX-18. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Arizona's 3rd Congressional District

Arizona · Latest: 2024↓ R+9.6 vs 2022

Safe Democratic — flipped 2 times in 25 elections

Ask Historian Open in Explore CompareShare image

Race & ancestry

Group	%
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	19.1%
▶Hispanic / Latino(20)	63.2%
▶Black / African American(15)	10.8%
▶Asian(6)	2.4%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11)	0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(8)	3.0%
Multiracial / Other	1.4%

View full demographics →

Key demographics

Metric	Value
Median household income	$68K
Bachelor's or higher	20.4%
English only at home	44.9%
Other language at home	48.6%
Foreign-born	25.0%

View full demographics →

Presidential results

Year	Result
2024	D+25.6
2020	D+37.7
2016	D+38.6
2012	D+33.3
2008	D+23.9

View full election history →

Arizona's 3rd Congressional District is a congressional district that has a population of 815,927. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+25.6. Akashic Edge tracks 5 presidential elections here, dating back to 2008.

Arizona's 3rd Congressional District Presidential Election Results, 2008–2024
Year	Dem %	Rep %	Margin	Swing
2024	62.1%	36.5%	D+25.6	R+12.1
2020	68.1%	30.4%	D+37.7	R+0.9
2016	65.9%	27.3%	D+38.6	D+5.3
2012	66.6%	33.4%	D+33.3	D+9.4
2008	61.2%	37.2%	D+23.9	—

Political Identity

What defines AZ-03?

AZ-03 is a deep Democratic urban geography that has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 2008. It shifted 12.1pp toward Republicans between 2020 and 2024. Its 816K residents are working-class (20% hold a bachelor's degree).

District in State Context

Open in Cartographer

Precinct Deep Dive

2024 / 2020 precinct vintages

See how each split precinct fragment inside AZ-03 voted, swung, and lines up demographically.

Unlock with Pro$33/mo

Similarity Explorer

Similar Districts

Nearest neighbors matched on demographic profile, presidential history, House performance, and ticket-splitting behavior.

1 visible match7 premium continuations

TX-35Texas

Lean Dem, Dense Suburban

Similarity score98%

Locked continuation

7 more similar districts

Continue the similarity set with additional districts matched on demographics, presidential behavior, and House profile.

TX-33TX-18TX-20CA-37

Unlock with Pro$33/mo

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore this district's political evolution with the Historian

“How has Arizona's 3rd Congressional District voted in House elections since 2000?”

Automated Readout

Key Insights

High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.

Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
Latest election (2024) was a Democratic landslide with a 25.6% margin
Swung 12.1 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

AZ-03Census ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

Hispanic 63.2%White (Non-Hispanic) 19.1%Black 10.8%Native American 3.0%Asian 2.4%Multiracial 1.4%

Group	AZ-03	State	National
▶Hispanic / Latino(20)	63.2%	31.4%	19.3%
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	19.1%	52.6%	57.4%
▶Black / African American(15)	10.8%	4.6%	12.2%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(8)	3.0%	4.0%	0.9%
▶Asian(6)	2.4%	3.6%	6.0%
Multiracial / Other	1.4%	3.7%	4.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11)	0.9%	—	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

AZ-03 vs Arizona vs National816K residents

20% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 13pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+15 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

816K

local

816KState 7.4MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.24%

local

0.24%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

70.9%

local

70.9%State 76.2%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$68,202

local

$68,202State $80,891National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

18.9%

local

18.9%State 12.5%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

20.4%

local

20.4%State 33.4%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

51.0%

local

51.0%State 67.4%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

31.2 yrs

local

31.2 yrsState 39.3 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

21.0%

local

21.0%State 16.3%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

8.7%

local

8.7%State 18.9%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

25.0%

local

25.0%State 13.0%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

52.0%

local

52.0%State 25.7%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

48.0%

local

48.0%State 74.3%National 77.8%

Competitiveness

How competitive is AZ-03?

Safe DAvg margin: D+34.0 (last 3 elections)

2008

D+23.9

2012

D+33.3

2016

D+38.6

2020

D+37.7

2024

D+25.6

Elasticity

14.7pp

margin range

Party Flips

last 30 years

5-Elec Avg

D+31.8

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in AZ-03 split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (0/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs House	D+25.6	D+44.4	18.8pp

Max divergence: 59.8pp|Avg divergence: 27.1pp

Arizona Comparison Set

Other Arizona Districts

Compare the rest of the delegation at a glance, with each card anchored to the latest House margin on current district pages.

16 sibling districts

Upgrade Path

Unlock District Analytics

Advance from the public dossier into precinct-level, insight-rich district intelligence.

Target plan Pro$33/mo

Precinct data, Smart Insights, full history, and export controls tailored to place pages.

Precinct-Level Data

See results for every neighborhood and voting precinct

Smart Insights

Automated highlights from recent election patterns

Full Historical Access

165 years of election data at every level of geography

CSV Exports

Download any table or chart as a CSV file

Upgrade to Pro$33/mo