Safe Democratic — flipped 1 time in 25 elections
POPULATION
729K
HOUSE MARGIN
D+23.7
2024
PRES MARGIN
D+22.2
2024
LEAN
Safe D
COLLEGE+
54%
Place Story
Ticket-splitting: President ran 16.1pp ahead of House
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Demographically distinctive: 54% college+ (+18pp vs national)
2024 / 2020 precinct vintages
See how each split precinct fragment inside CT-04 voted, swung, and lines up demographically.
Unlock with Pro$33/mo| Group | CT-04 | State | National |
|---|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 55.7% | 63.2% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 22.8% | 17.3% | 19.3% |
▶Black / African American(14) | 11.1% | 10.8% | 12.2% |
▶Asian(6) | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 1.6% | — | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(4) | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% |
54% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 21pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+25 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs House | D+22.2 | D+23.7 | 1.5pp |