How did NM-02, New Mexico vote in the 2024 presidential election?

NM-02, New Mexico voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+17.1. The Democratic candidate received 111,189 votes and the Republican candidate received 158,106 out of 274,720 total votes cast, a 5.2-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is NM-02, New Mexico's political history?

NM-02, New Mexico has 5 presidential elections on record, spanning 2008 to 2024. It has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2008. The largest single-election swing was 5.5 points in 2012.

What are the demographics of NM-02, New Mexico?

NM-02, New Mexico has a population of 707,320 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 28.6% non-Hispanic white, 60.5% Hispanic, 2.2% Black. About 24% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $57,932.

New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District

New Mexico · Latest: 2024↑ D+3.4 vs 2022

Competitive — flipped 6 times in 25 elections

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POPULATION
707K
HOUSE MARGIN
D+4.2
2024
PRES MARGIN
R+17.1
2024
LEAN
Likely R
COLLEGE+
24%

Place Story

What defines New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District

Methodology

Leans Republican since 2008
- Likely R
- 5 straight R wins
Demographically distinctive: 61% Hispanic (+41pp vs national)
- 61% Hispanic (+41pp vs national)
- 29% non-Hispanic white (-29pp vs national)
Ticket-splitting: President ran 21.3pp behind House
- Divergence 21.2pp in 2024
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Biggest swing: R+5.5 in 2012
- 2008 → 2012

District in State Context

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Precinct Deep Dive

2024 / 2020 precinct vintages

See how each split precinct fragment inside NM-02 voted, swung, and lines up demographically.

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Historian Query

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Explore this district's political evolution with the Historian

“How has New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District voted in House elections since 2000?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

NM-02Census ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

Hispanic 60.5%White (Non-Hispanic) 28.6%Native American 5.6%Black 2.2%Multiracial 1.8%Asian 1.2%

Group	NM-02	State	National
▶Hispanic / Latino(17)	60.5%	48.4%	19.3%
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	28.6%	36.0%	57.4%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(7)	5.6%	9.5%	0.9%
▶Black / African American(8)	2.2%	2.1%	12.2%
Multiracial / Other	1.8%	2.1%	4.0%
▶Asian(6)	1.2%	1.8%	6.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9)	0.7%	—	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

NM-02 vs New Mexico vs National707K residents

24% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 9pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+9 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

707K

local

707KState 2.1MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.21%

local

0.21%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

74.1%

local

74.1%State 76.3%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$57,932

local

$57,932State $65,558National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

20.1%

local

20.1%State 17.9%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

24.4%

local

24.4%State 30.6%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

72.1%

local

72.1%State 70.0%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

37.0 yrs

local

37.0 yrsState 39.7 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

17.7%

local

17.7%State 15.8%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

17.3%

local

17.3%State 19.3%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

12.1%

local

12.1%State 9.4%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

38.3%

local

38.3%State 31.3%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

61.7%

local

61.7%State 68.7%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in NM-02

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.

2024 Turnout

52.4%

vs Previous

+0.8pp

Voting-Age Pop

524,003

History

2008–2024

Competitiveness

How competitive is NM-02?

Likely RAvg margin: R+13.0 (last 3 elections)

2008

R+1.7

2012

R+7.2

2016

R+10.2

2020

R+11.8

2024

R+17.1

Elasticity

15.3pp

margin range

Party Flips

last 30 years

5-Elec Avg

R+9.6

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in NM-02 split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (29/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs House	R+17.1	D+4.2	21.2pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 13.1pp

New Mexico Comparison Set

Other New Mexico Districts

Compare the rest of the delegation at a glance, with each card anchored to the latest House margin on current district pages.

4 sibling districts

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