Tri-Cities, TN-VA Media Market — Elections 1876–2024

Tri-Cities, TN-VA, Virginia: Evangelical Deep South market. In 2024, voted R+58%. Republican peak: R+58 in 2024.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: R+58MIT Election Lab
Political typology: Evangelical Deep SouthAkashic typology
Population: 791,3132024 5-year
Median household income: $55,3412024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 91.9%2024 5-year
Black: 2.4%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 2.8%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+11 in 1912MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+58 in 2024MIT Election Lab

2024 presidential election

Tri-Cities, TN-VA

TrumpR+58

—

How it voted

Share of the 2024 vote

Donald Trump ✓Republican	78.4%	289,744
Kamala HarrisDemocratic	20.6%	76,113
OtherAll other candidates	1.0%	3,733

D+60

R+60

19 counties, each filled by 2024 D-vs-R margin. Hover any county for its result.

presidential history

Presidential margin, 1876–2024

Democratic minus Republican, by election

Presidential margin over time
Year	Margin (D minus R)
1876	No data
1880	No data
1884	No data
1888	No data
1892	+1.7%
1896	−18.2%
1900	−14.2%
1904	−25.2%
1908	−25.6%
1912	+11.1%
1916	−18.8%
1920	−30.1%
1924	−13.1%
1928	−25.6%
1932	+5.5%
1936	+7.2%
1940	+3.5%
1944	−7.1%
1948	−8.4%
1952	−20.9%
1956	−24.3%
1960	−22.6%
1964	+2.4%
1968	−23.3%
1972	−47.2%
1976	+0.6%
1980	−11.2%
1984	−26.9%
1988	−21.0%
1992	−4.2%
1996	−6.6%
2000	−16.0%
2004	−29.7%
2008	−35.0%
2012	−44.3%
2016	−56.4%
2020	−54.9%
2024	−57.8%

DemocraticRepublican

38 presidential elections

Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
Year	Won	Margin	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	R	−57.8%	76,113	289,744	369,590
2020	R	−54.9%	78,983	277,996	362,319
2016	R	−56.4%	62,701	240,336	314,687
2012	R	−44.3%	83,607	220,840	309,785
2008	R	−35.0%	99,177	208,671	312,798
2004	R	−29.7%	106,880	198,359	308,125
2000	R	−16.0%	112,827	156,976	275,228
1996	R	−6.6%	108,578	125,670	258,539
1992	R	−4.2%	118,163	130,084	282,459
1988	R	−21.0%	97,537	150,025	250,220
1984	R	−26.9%	97,735	170,402	270,192
1980	R	−11.2%	106,615	134,500	249,595
1976	D	+0.6%	117,186	115,659	239,055
1972	R	−47.2%	49,451	141,390	194,941
1968	R	−23.3%	60,783	109,221	208,157
1964	D	+2.4%	91,694	87,419	179,318
1960	R	−22.6%	70,584	112,222	183,912
1956	R	−24.3%	67,706	111,703	180,691
1952	R	−20.9%	61,551	94,262	156,455
1948	R	−8.4%	51,686	61,422	115,945
1944	R	−7.1%	50,000	57,711	107,974
1940	D	+3.5%	54,227	50,564	105,285
1936	D	+7.2%	53,459	46,217	99,970
1932	D	+5.5%	47,839	42,844	91,369
1928	R	−25.6%	33,561	56,634	90,242
1924	R	−13.1%	32,433	42,619	77,478
1920	R	−30.1%	28,189	52,604	80,989
1916	R	−18.8%	20,569	30,149	50,908
1912	D	+11.1%	17,778	12,791	45,062
1908	R	−25.6%	15,919	26,926	42,998
1904	R	−25.2%	14,796	24,846	39,930
1900	R	−14.2%	22,057	29,387	51,753
1896	R	−18.2%	20,863	30,244	51,569
1892	D	+1.7%	20,757	20,029	43,173
1888	—	No data	—	—	—
1884	—	No data	—	—	—
1880	—	No data	—	—	—
1876	—	No data	—	—	—

Demographics

2024 ACS

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry

Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.

American

21.2%

English

16.8%

Irish

10.0%

German

9.3%

Scottish

2.3%

Italian

1.7%

French

0.8%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.

2024 ACS

Age distribution by sex

Median age: 44.5 in this county, 39.1 nationally

Male

Age

Female

0.9%

85+

1.3%

3.1%

75–84

3.9%

6.1%

65–74

6.7%

7.1%

55–64

7.3%

6.6%

45–54

6.5%

5.9%

35–44

5.7%

6.3%

25–34

5.7%

4.2%

18–24

4.1%

7.3%

5–17

6.9%

2.3%

2.2%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

2024 ACS

Median household income

Inflation-adjusted dollars

$55,341

Tri-Cities, TN-VA ranks near the middle of US counties.

Tri-Cities, TN-VA$55,341

Virginia$63,726

United States$80,734

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

2024 ACS

Poverty rate

All persons below federal poverty line

16.8%

Children face moderate poverty.

Children under 1822.3%

Working age (18–64)15.8%

Seniors (65+)13.7%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

2024 ACS

Language at home

Population aged 5 and older

97.1%

speak English only

Spanish1.9%

Other Indo-European0.5%

Asian & Pacific Islander0.3%

Other languages0.2%

Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.

2020 religion census

Religious adherents

Adherents per capita by tradition

Baptist

22.0%

Other Christian

15.8%

Methodist

6.9%

Pentecostal & Holiness

2.0%

Mainline Protestant

2.0%

Catholic & Orthodox

1.6%

Non-Christian

0.1%

Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 49.5% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

The Tri-Cities market straddles a state line, meaning voters in Johnson City, Kingsport, and Bristol are reached by campaigns operating under two different sets of electoral rules and candidate slates simultaneously.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of eleven points in 1912 and a Republican high of fifty-eight points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the market moved three points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was fifty-eight points.

A population of 791,313, a 92% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $55,341 describe the market.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page

All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.

Tri-Cities, TN-VA, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/dma/531/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.

License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Tri-Cities, TN-VA, Virginia vote in 2024?

In 2024, Tri-Cities, TN-VA, Virginia voted Republican by 57.8 points (R+58), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 369,590 votes cast, 76,113 went Democratic and 289,744 went Republican.

What is Tri-Cities, TN-VA, Virginia's political typology?

Akashic places Tri-Cities, TN-VA, Virginia in the "Evangelical Deep South" typology. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the market has voted Democratic 7 times, Republican 27 times, and other 0 times.

When did Tri-Cities, TN-VA, Virginia last vote Democratic?

The most recent presidential election in which Tri-Cities, TN-VA, Virginia voted Democratic was 1976.

How many people live in Tri-Cities, TN-VA, Virginia?

Tri-Cities, TN-VA, Virginia has a population of 791,313 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Tri-Cities, TN-VA, Virginia?

Median household income in Tri-Cities, TN-VA, Virginia is $55,341 — below the national median of $80,734. The Virginia state median is $63,726.

What is the political history of Tri-Cities, TN-VA, Virginia?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Tri-Cities, TN-VA, Virginia from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 7 went Democratic and 27 went Republican. The market's typology — "Evangelical Deep South" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.

Greene County, TN	R +3,058
Sullivan County, TN	R +2,679
Hawkins County, TN	R +2,650

Tri-Cities, TN-VA has voted Republican in twelve straight presidential elections — R+58 in 2024.

Key facts

Demographics

Compare two places, side by side

Frequently asked questions