akashic
1876–2024
Tucson (Sierra Vista)·Arizona

Tucson (Sierra Vista) has voted Democratic in nine straight presidential elections — D+11 in 2024.

A Sun Belt market where rapid growth meets a heavy military footprint

1876 — 2024·38 elections
AZ
LatestD+11in 2024
TypologyDiversifying Metrocluster typology
Population1,234,9822024 ACS

Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona: Diversifying Metro market. In 2024, voted D+11%. Democratic peak: D+42 in 1936.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
D+11MIT Election Lab
Political typology
Diversifying MetroAkashic typology
Population
1,234,9822024 5-year
Median household income
$68,6422024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
58.3%2024 5-year
Black
3.4%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
38.1%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+42 in 1936MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+23 in 1956MIT Election Lab
2024 presidential election
Tucson (Sierra Vista)
HarrisD+11
—
2024 presidential margin by county for Tucson (Sierra Vista), AZA map of the constituent counties of Tucson (Sierra Vista), AZ, each outlined and filled by its 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic).Cochise County, AZ · R+23Santa Cruz County, AZ · D+19Pima County, AZ · D+15
How it voted
Share of the 2024 vote
Kamala Harris ✓Democratic54.9%326,011
Donald TrumpRepublican43.5%258,304
OtherAll other candidates1.5%9,014
D+60
R+60
3 counties, each filled by 2024 D-vs-R margin. Hover any county for its result.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1876–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over timeDemocratic-minus-Republican presidential margin from 1876 to 2024. Most recent: +11.4% in 2024.flipped D · 1992+11.4%DR18762024
Presidential margin over time
YearMargin (D minus R)
1876No data
1880No data
1884No data
1888No data
1892No data
1896No data
1900No data
1904No data
1908No data
1912+30.5%
1916+14.8%
1920−11.6%
1924−5.5%
1928−13.3%
1932+34.8%
1936+41.7%
1940+28.2%
1944+17.3%
1948+7.1%
1952−17.6%
1956−22.9%
1960−3.8%
1964+7.4%
1968−9.2%
1972−12.5%
1976−3.7%
1980−16.5%
1984−16.1%
1988−3.0%
1992+10.1%
1996+11.9%
2000+6.1%
2004+3.6%
2008+3.9%
2012+4.7%
2016+11.1%
2020+15.3%
2024+11.4%
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
D
+11.4%
326,011258,304593,329
D
+15.3%
341,851249,509602,420
D
+11.1%
253,801199,417488,088
D
+4.7%
229,283208,511446,285
D
+3.9%
233,880215,950455,551
D
+3.6%
217,551202,333423,776
D
+6.1%
166,281146,103329,774
D
+11.9%
157,006120,742304,642
D
+10.1%
144,782112,262322,714
R
−3.0%
128,904137,034269,213
R
−16.1%
103,719144,090250,356
R
−16.5%
73,535109,080214,842
R
−3.7%
82,76089,497179,682
R
−12.5%
64,11286,997183,488
R
−9.2%
47,94058,800118,010
D
+7.4%
65,12056,102121,435
R
−3.8%
51,45855,571107,286
R
−22.9%
29,99547,83777,893
R
−17.6%
28,24240,32468,566
D
+7.1%
25,31421,88048,514
D
+17.3%
21,23214,94836,254
D
+28.2%
24,31913,59338,028
D
+41.7%
22,1088,91331,619
D
+34.8%
20,4659,61531,203
R
−13.3%
10,20013,33023,620
R
−5.5%
6,7637,85019,588
R
−11.6%
7,5919,58317,174
D
+14.8%
8,9206,48516,496
O
+30.5%
2,9168126,892
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Demographics

2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
12.8%
English
10.6%
Irish
8.9%
Italian
3.9%
American
3.2%
Scottish
2.0%
Polish
2.0%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 40.1 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.9%
85+
1.3%
3.4%
75–84
3.9%
5.7%
65–74
6.6%
5.7%
55–64
6.2%
5.3%
45–54
5.4%
5.9%
35–44
5.7%
6.7%
25–34
6.2%
5.6%
18–24
5.4%
7.6%
5–17
7.4%
2.5%
<5
2.4%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$68,642
Tucson (Sierra Vista) ranks near the middle of US counties.
Tucson (Sierra Vista)$68,642
Arizona$79,964
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
14.6%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1819.1%
Working age (18–64)14.1%
Seniors (65+)9.9%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
72.1%
speak English only
Spanish23.3%
Other Indo-European1.8%
Asian & Pacific Islander1.7%
Other languages1.1%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
21.5%
Other Christian
11.2%
Mainline Protestant
2.2%
Pentecostal & Holiness
2.0%
Non-Christian
2.0%
Baptist
1.9%
Methodist
0.6%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 58.6% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Fort Huachuca anchors Sierra Vista's economy and voter base, while Tucson's expanding Latino electorate and University of Arizona enrollment make this media market one of the more demographically complex in the Southwest.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of forty-two points in 1936 and a Republican high of twenty-three points in 1956. Between 2020 and 2024 the market moved four points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was eleven points.

A population of 1,234,982, a 58% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $68,642 describe the market.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona. Akashic. https://akashic.app/dma/789/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona vote in 2024?
In 2024, Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona voted Democratic by 11.4 points (D+11), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 593,329 votes cast, 326,011 went Democratic and 258,304 went Republican.
What is Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona's political typology?
Akashic places Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona in the "Diversifying Metro" typology. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the market has voted Democratic 16 times, Republican 12 times, and other 1 times.
When did Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona voted Republican was 1988.
How many people live in Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona?
Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona has a population of 1,234,982 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona?
Median household income in Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona is $68,642 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 16 went Democratic and 12 went Republican. The market's typology — "Diversifying Metro" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.