Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg, Illinois: Evangelical Deep South market. In 2024, voted R+50%. Republican peak: R+50 in 2024.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+50MIT Election Lab
- Political typology
- Evangelical Deep SouthAkashic typology
- Population
- 934,1602024 5-year
- Median household income
- $57,8012024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 85.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 6.5%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+32 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+50 in 2024MIT Election Lab
2024 presidential election
Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg
TrumpR+50
How it voted
Share of the 2024 vote
| Donald Trump ✓Republican | 74.5% | 323,896 |
|---|---|---|
| Kamala HarrisDemocratic | 24.3% | 105,685 |
| OtherAll other candidates | 1.2% | 5,353 |
D+60R+60
43 counties, each filled by 2024 D-vs-R margin. Hover any county for its result.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1876–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1876 | No data |
| 1880 | No data |
| 1884 | No data |
| 1888 | No data |
| 1892 | +12.2% |
| 1896 | +15.5% |
| 1900 | +10.0% |
| 1904 | +0.6% |
| 1908 | +6.0% |
| 1912 | +17.0% |
| 1916 | +4.7% |
| 1920 | −3.1% |
| 1924 | +3.8% |
| 1928 | −3.3% |
| 1932 | +32.4% |
| 1936 | +20.4% |
| 1940 | +12.0% |
| 1944 | +7.0% |
| 1948 | +21.3% |
| 1952 | +4.5% |
| 1956 | +5.7% |
| 1960 | −3.4% |
| 1964 | +30.1% |
| 1968 | −2.1% |
| 1972 | −24.9% |
| 1976 | +20.6% |
| 1980 | −4.3% |
| 1984 | −12.2% |
| 1988 | −3.1% |
| 1992 | +14.7% |
| 1996 | +9.9% |
| 2000 | −10.5% |
| 2004 | −20.9% |
| 2008 | −20.0% |
| 2012 | −30.6% |
| 2016 | −46.9% |
| 2020 | −47.4% |
| 2024 | −50.2% |
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 105,685 | 323,896 | 434,934 | ||
| R | 113,855 | 325,692 | 446,588 | ||
| R | 105,073 | 307,083 | 430,576 | ||
| R | 140,175 | 267,572 | 416,270 | ||
| R | 170,914 | 258,089 | 436,413 | ||
| R | 170,364 | 260,882 | 434,127 | ||
| R | 172,625 | 214,094 | 396,243 | ||
| D | 185,319 | 148,178 | 375,131 | ||
| D | 205,659 | 144,901 | 413,308 | ||
| R | 177,837 | 189,240 | 368,749 | ||
| R | 169,789 | 217,138 | 388,402 | ||
| R | 180,958 | 197,730 | 391,411 | ||
| D | 221,096 | 144,779 | 370,491 | ||
| R | 126,334 | 210,929 | 340,351 | ||
| R | 138,278 | 145,586 | 352,519 | ||
| D | 229,561 | 123,155 | 352,996 | ||
| R | 182,073 | 195,003 | 377,570 | ||
| D | 194,995 | 174,011 | 369,615 | ||
| D | 194,388 | 177,665 | 372,678 | ||
| D | 189,597 | 122,452 | 315,972 | ||
| D | 179,246 | 155,565 | 336,305 | ||
| D | 230,102 | 180,549 | 412,442 | ||
| D | 228,470 | 150,467 | 382,351 | ||
| D | 221,926 | 112,012 | 338,720 | ||
| R | 142,092 | 151,865 | 295,629 | ||
| D | 136,071 | 125,205 | 289,227 | ||
| R | 137,434 | 146,752 | 297,622 | ||
| D | 125,268 | 113,768 | 246,669 | ||
| D | 79,507 | 51,686 | 163,418 | ||
| D | 85,520 | 75,461 | 167,717 | ||
| D | 70,627 | 69,749 | 148,566 | ||
| D | 84,195 | 68,641 | 155,883 | ||
| D | 87,328 | 63,635 | 152,973 | ||
| D | 63,890 | 48,616 | 124,879 | ||
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Demographics
2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
15.0%
English
13.4%
American
10.8%
Irish
10.4%
Italian
1.9%
Scottish
1.6%
French
1.3%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 40.9 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$57,801
Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg ranks near the middle of US counties.
Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg$57,801
Illinois$63,726
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
16.9%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1821.3%
Working age (18–64)15.9%
Seniors (65+)13.3%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
96.5%
speak English only
Spanish1.9%
Other Indo-European0.9%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.6%
Other languages0.1%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 44.7% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Spanning corners of Kentucky, Missouri, Illinois, and Tennessee, this mid-Mississippi media market forces campaigns to buy across multiple state lines to reach a relatively small, predominantly rural audience that has shifted decisively toward Republican margins over the past two decades.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of thirty-two points in 1932 and a Republican high of fifty points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the market moved three points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was fifty points.
A population of 934,160, a 86% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $57,801 describe the market.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg, Illinois. Akashic. https://akashic.app/dma/632/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg, Illinois vote in 2024?
In 2024, Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg, Illinois voted Republican by 50.2 points (R+50), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 434,934 votes cast, 105,685 went Democratic and 323,896 went Republican.
What is Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg, Illinois's political typology?
Akashic places Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg, Illinois in the "Evangelical Deep South" typology. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the market has voted Democratic 19 times, Republican 15 times, and other 0 times.
When did Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg, Illinois last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg, Illinois voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg, Illinois?
Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg, Illinois has a population of 934,160 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg, Illinois?
Median household income in Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg, Illinois is $57,801 — below the national median of $80,734. The Illinois state median is $63,726.
What is the political history of Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg, Illinois?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg, Illinois from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 19 went Democratic and 15 went Republican. The market's typology — "Evangelical Deep South" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.