Monroe-El Dorado
Latest: 2024
Safe Republican — shifted 5.0pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 457K residents — 18 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 57.9% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(14) | 3.8% |
▶Black / African American(8) | 34.5% |
▶Asian(6) | 0.8% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(8) | 0.3% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.2% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 2.7% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 48.0% | 73.2% |
| Black Protestant | 7.9% | 12.1% |
| Mainline Protestant | 4.8% | 7.3% |
| Catholic | 3.1% | 4.7% |
| Other | 1.7% | 2.5% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.9% | 1.3% |
| Non-religious | 34.5% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+36.1 |
| 2020 | Trump+31.1 |
| 2016 | Trump+30.2 |
| 2012 | Romney+24.2 |
| 2008 | McCain+26.0 |
| 2004 | Bush+27.0 |
| 2000 | Bush+19.7 |
| 1996 | Clinton+5.0 |
| 1992 | Clinton+1.3 |
Monroe-El Dorado is a media market that has a population of 456,966. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+36.1. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 31.4% | 67.4% | R+36.1 | R+5.0 |
| 2020 | 33.7% | 64.8% | R+31.1 | R+0.9 |
| 2016 | 33.8% | 64.0% | R+30.2 | R+6.0 |
| 2012 | 37.2% | 61.5% | R+24.2 | D+1.8 |
| 2008 | 36.4% | 62.4% | R+26.0 | D+1.0 |
| 2004 | 35.9% | 62.9% | R+27.0 | R+7.4 |
| 2000 | 38.7% | 58.3% | R+19.7 | R+24.7 |
| 1996 | 47.9% | 42.9% | D+5.0 | D+3.7 |
| 1992 | 43.3% | 41.9% | D+1.3 | D+27.1 |
| 1988 | 35.8% | 61.6% | R+25.8 | D+7.4 |
| 1984 | 32.6% | 65.7% | R+33.2 | R+18.6 |
| 1980 | 41.3% | 55.9% | R+14.6 | R+11.7 |
| 1976 | 47.7% | 50.6% | R+2.9 | D+43.5 |
| 1972 | 24.6% | 71.0% | R+46.4 | R+46.9 |
| 1968 | 22.4% | 21.9% | D+0.5 | D+55.4 |
| 1964 | 22.4% | 77.4% | R+54.9 | R+42.1 |
| 1960 | 31.5% | 44.3% | R+12.8 | R+7.8 |
| 1956 | 36.6% | 41.6% | R+5.0 | R+16.3 |
| 1952 | 55.6% | 44.3% | D+11.3 | R+19.2 |
| 1948 | 40.7% | 10.2% | D+30.6 | — |
What defines Monroe-El Dorado?
Monroe-El Dorado has been trending Republican — 12pp redder over the last 4 presidential cycles.
Constituent Counties
Similar media markets
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Counties in Monroe-El Dorado
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ouachita | 158K | R+27.9 | 22,845 | 40,808 | 64,436 | 33.4% |
| Lincoln | 48K | R+25.4 | 6,627 | 11,248 | 18,157 | 9.4% |
| Union | 38K | R+33.5 | 5,019 | 10,196 | 15,448 | 8.0% |
| Morehouse | 25K | R+19.3 | 4,008 | 5,961 | 10,097 | 5.2% |
| Union | 21K | R+57.0 | 2,206 | 8,176 | 10,475 | 5.4% |
| Richland | 20K | R+39.4 | 2,732 | 6,354 | 9,193 | 4.8% |
| Franklin | 19K | R+49.2 | 2,196 | 6,524 | 8,798 | 4.6% |
| Ashley | 18K | R+48.0 | 1,774 | 5,145 | 7,030 | 3.6% |
| Concordia | 18K | R+29.4 | 2,698 | 4,974 | 7,755 | 4.0% |
| Jackson | 15K | R+47.6 | 1,852 | 5,291 | 7,226 | 3.7% |
| La Salle | 15K | R+82.7 | 546 | 6,023 | 6,620 | 3.4% |
| Winn | 13K | R+54.4 | 1,292 | 4,437 | 5,781 | 3.0% |
| Madison | 10K | D+6.2 | 2,094 | 1,846 | 3,992 | 2.1% |
| Caldwell | 10K | R+72.5 | 580 | 3,724 | 4,334 | 2.2% |
| West Carroll | 9K | R+74.0 | 578 | 3,986 | 4,603 | 2.4% |
| Catahoula | 9K | R+50.5 | 1,060 | 3,258 | 4,348 | 2.3% |
| East Carroll | 7K | D+17.6 | 1,338 | 931 | 2,306 | 1.2% |
| Tensas | 4K | R+4.3 | 1,002 | 1,093 | 2,128 | 1.1% |
18 countiesTotal votes: 192,727
Ask the Historian
Explore Monroe-El Dorado's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 36.1% margin
- Shifted 11.8 points toward Republicans over the last 4 elections
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Monroe-El Dorado | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 57.9% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(8) | 34.5% | 12.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(14) | 3.8% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 2.7% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 0.8% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(8) | 0.3% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.2% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3) | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
65.5%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -73.0pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48.0% | 73.2% | — | — | |
| 7.9% | 12.1% | — | — | |
| 4.8% | 7.3% | — | — | |
| 3.1% | 4.7% | — | — | |
| 1.7% | 2.5% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.9% | 1.3% | — | — |
Non-religiousPopulation | 34.5% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Monroe-El Dorado media market? 456,966 residents across 18 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
22% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 11pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+9 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
457K
Share of U.S. population
0.14%
Voting-age population
71.9%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$49,051
Poverty rate
25.0%
College degree
22.2%
Homeownership
66.0%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
37.9 yrs
Age 18–29
16.7%
Age 65+
17.7%
Foreign born
2.1%
Non-English at home
3.9%
English only
96.1%
Turnout in Monroe-El Dorado
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
58.6%
-5.3pp
328,760
1988–2024
How competitive is Monroe-El Dorado?
Safe RAvg margin: R+32.5 (last 3 elections)
2008
R+26.0
2012
R+24.2
2016
R+30.2
2020
R+31.1
2024
R+36.1
11.8pp
1
R+29.5
Do voters in Monroe-El Dorado split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (0/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate vs Governor | R+54.9 | R+39.4 | 15.5pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 18.2pp
Located In
Monroe-El Dorado sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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