Danville, KY
Latest: 2024
Safe Republican — shifted 4.4pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 55K residents — 2 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 86.9% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(9) | 3.6% |
▶Black / African American(7) | 4.9% |
▶Asian(6) | 0.6% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(2) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.9% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 50.1% | 78.4% |
| Mainline Protestant | 6.8% | 10.7% |
| Black Protestant | 2.8% | 4.3% |
| Catholic | 2.3% | 3.6% |
| Other | 1.9% | 3.0% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.9% | 1.4% |
| Non-religious | 36.0% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+43.0 |
| 2020 | Trump+38.6 |
| 2016 | Trump+41.0 |
| 2012 | Romney+32.8 |
| 2008 | McCain+29.6 |
| 2004 | Bush+29.6 |
| 2000 | Bush+23.9 |
| 1996 | Dole+4.9 |
| 1992 | Bush+1.4 |
Danville, KY is a metro area that has a population of 55,445. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+43.0. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 27.8% | 70.8% | R+43.0 | R+4.4 |
| 2020 | 29.7% | 68.4% | R+38.6 | D+2.4 |
| 2016 | 27.3% | 68.3% | R+41.0 | R+8.2 |
| 2012 | 32.8% | 65.6% | R+32.8 | R+3.2 |
| 2008 | 34.5% | 64.1% | R+29.6 | 0.0 |
| 2004 | 34.9% | 64.4% | R+29.6 | R+5.7 |
| 2000 | 37.1% | 60.9% | R+23.9 | R+18.9 |
| 1996 | 43.2% | 48.1% | R+4.9 | R+3.5 |
| 1992 | 42.2% | 43.6% | R+1.4 | D+12.5 |
| 1988 | 42.9% | 56.7% | R+13.9 | D+10.5 |
| 1984 | 37.7% | 62.0% | R+24.3 | R+28.0 |
| 1980 | 50.5% | 46.9% | D+3.7 | R+4.3 |
| 1976 | 53.5% | 45.5% | D+8.0 | D+37.6 |
| 1972 | 34.6% | 64.3% | R+29.7 | R+22.2 |
| 1968 | 36.1% | 43.5% | R+7.4 | R+43.0 |
| 1964 | 67.7% | 32.1% | D+35.6 | D+48.4 |
| 1960 | 43.6% | 56.4% | R+12.9 | R+8.6 |
| 1956 | 47.7% | 52.0% | R+4.3 | R+8.4 |
| 1952 | 51.9% | 47.8% | D+4.1 | R+12.1 |
| 1948 | 57.2% | 41.0% | D+16.1 | — |
What defines Danville, KY?
It has a working-class electorate (22% college-educated) — a demographic increasingly aligned with Republicans nationwide.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Campbellsville, KY
Small-town rural republican 3
Hannibal, MO
Small-town rural republican 3
Moberly, MO
Small-town rural republican 3
Gallipolis, OH
Small-town rural republican 3
Farmington, MO
Small-town rural republican 3
West Plains, MO
Small-town rural republican 3
Glasgow, KY
Small-town rural republican 3
Sikeston, MO
Small-town rural republican 3
Counties in Danville, KY
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
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Ask the Historian
Explore Danville, KY's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 43.0% margin
- College attainment is 22% — 11pp below the national average. Similar education levels correlate with Republican lean nationally
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Danville, KY | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 86.9% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(7) | 4.9% | 12.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.9% | 4.0% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(9) | 3.6% | 19.3% |
▶Asian(6) | 0.6% | 6.0% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(2) | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
64.0%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -79.3pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.1% | 78.4% | — | — | |
| 6.8% | 10.7% | — | — | |
| 2.8% | 4.3% | — | — | |
| 2.3% | 3.6% | — | — | |
| 1.9% | 3.0% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.9% | 1.4% | — | — |
Non-religiousPopulation | 36.0% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Danville, KY metro area? 55,445 residents across 2 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
22% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 11pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+15 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
55K
Share of U.S. population
0.02%
Voting-age population
71.8%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$57,269
Poverty rate
15.9%
College degree
21.7%
Homeownership
71.7%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
40.0 yrs
Age 18–29
15.6%
Age 65+
18.6%
Foreign born
1.7%
Non-English at home
3.1%
English only
96.9%
Turnout in Danville, KY
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
63.9%
+0.1pp
39,783
1988–2024
How competitive is Danville, KY?
Safe RAvg margin: R+40.9 (last 3 elections)
2008
R+29.6
2012
R+32.8
2016
R+41.0
2020
R+38.6
2024
R+43.0
13.4pp
0
R+37.0
Do voters in Danville, KY split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (0/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+38.6 | R+32.6 | 6.0pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 18.4pp
Located In
Danville, KY sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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