How did Jacksonville, NC vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Jacksonville, NC voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+35.8. Kamala D Harris received 25,684 votes and Donald Trump received 54,960 out of 81,681 total votes cast, a 5.6-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Jacksonville, NC's political history?

Jacksonville, NC has 40 presidential elections on record, spanning 1868 to 2024. It has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1980. The largest single-election swing was 89.9 points in 1932.

What are the demographics of Jacksonville, NC?

Jacksonville, NC has a population of 207,906 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 64.0% non-Hispanic white, 14.0% Hispanic, 12.0% Black. About 26% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $68,148.

Which places are most similar to Jacksonville, NC?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar metro areas to Jacksonville, NC are Fort Leonard Wood, MO, Warrensburg, MO, Manhattan, KS. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Jacksonville, NC

Latest: 2024↓ R+5.6 vs 2020

Safe Republican — shifted 5.6pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 208K residents — 1 counties

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POPULATION
208K
COUNTIES
1
PRES MARGIN
R+35.8
2024
TURNOUT
60.6%
MEDIAN INCOME
$68K

Place Story

What defines Jacksonville, NC

Methodology

Reliably Republican since 1980
- Safe R
- 12 straight R wins
Mobilization target, not persuasion target.
Biggest swing: D+89.9 in 1932
- 1928 → 1932
Volatile behavior — treat historical margins with caution.
Evangelical edge: 34pp over Catholics
- 21% Catholic / 55% Evangelical
Correlates nationally with Republican-leaning behavior.
Ticket-splitting: President ran 35.4pp behind Governor
- Divergence 35.4pp in 2004
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Atypical: young but Republican-leaning (median age 28, R+29.7 avg)
- Median age 28
- R+29.7 avg
Hypothesis — investigate economic or cultural drivers.

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar metro areas

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.

8 visible matches

Fort Leonard Wood, MO

Educated rural competitive

R+50.3

Similarity score97%

Warrensburg, MO

Educated rural competitive

R+39.6

Similarity score89%

Manhattan, KS

Educated rural competitive

R+16.2

Similarity score89%

Rexburg, ID

Educated rural competitive

Small-town rural republican 2

R+35.7

Similarity score86%

Stillwater, OK

Educated rural competitive

R+25.3

Similarity score85%

Constituent Geography

Counties in Jacksonville, NC

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Onslow	208K	R+35.8	25,684	54,960	81,681	100.0%

1 countiesTotal votes: 81,681

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Jacksonville, NC's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Jacksonville, NC metro area voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

Jacksonville, NCCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 64.0%Hispanic 14.0%Black 12.0%Multiracial 7.2%Asian 1.9%Native American 0.7%

Group	Jacksonville, NC	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	64.0%	57.4%
▶Hispanic / Latino(20)	14.0%	19.3%
▶Black / African American(16)	12.0%	12.2%
Multiracial / Other	7.2%	4.0%
▶Asian(6)	1.9%	6.0%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(7)	0.7%	0.9%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(8)	0.5%	0.9%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3)	0.2%	0.2%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

34.6%(71.9K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: -39.0pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Evangelical Protestant	19.0%	55.0%	—	—
Catholic	7.1%	20.5%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	4.0%	11.6%	—	—
Black Protestant	2.4%	6.9%	—	—
Other	2.1%	6.0%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	0.7%	2.0%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	65.4%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Evangelical Protestant adherence nationally

Who lives in the Jacksonville, NC metro area? 207,906 residents across 1 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

Jacksonville, NC vs National208K residents

26% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 7pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+3 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

208K

local

208KNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.06%

local

0.06%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

64.9%

local

64.9%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$68,148

local

$68,148National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

11.6%

local

11.6%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

26.0%

local

26.0%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

63.7%

local

63.7%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

27.7 yrs

local

27.7 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

29.2%

local

29.2%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

10.2%

local

10.2%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

4.2%

local

4.2%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

10.4%

local

10.4%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

89.6%

local

89.6%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Jacksonville, NC

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.

2024 Turnout

60.6%

vs Previous

+7.1pp

Voting-Age Pop

134,896

History

1988–2024

Competitiveness

How competitive is Jacksonville, NC?

Safe RAvg margin: R+33.5 (last 3 elections)

2008

R+21.5

2012

R+26.7

2016

R+34.3

2020

R+30.2

2024

R+35.8

Elasticity

14.4pp

margin range

Party Flips

last 30 years

5-Elec Avg

R+29.7

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Jacksonville, NC split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (35/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Governor	R+35.8	R+15.1	20.7pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 12.2pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Jacksonville, NC sits inside these higher-level geographies.

North Carolina(State)

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