How did Warrensburg, MO vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Warrensburg, MO voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+39.6. Kamala D Harris received 6,960 votes and Donald Trump received 16,298 out of 23,602 total votes cast, a 2.7-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Warrensburg, MO's political history?

Warrensburg, MO has 40 presidential elections on record, spanning 1868 to 2024. It has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1996. The largest single-election swing was 46.4 points in 1932.

What are the demographics of Warrensburg, MO?

Warrensburg, MO has a population of 54,732 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 83.7% non-Hispanic white, 5.2% Hispanic, 4.3% Black. About 29% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $67,272.

Which places are most similar to Warrensburg, MO?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar metro areas to Warrensburg, MO are Maryville, MO, Cedar City, UT, Hays, KS. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Warrensburg, MO

Latest: 2024↓ R+2.7 vs 2020

Safe Republican — 55K residents — 1 counties

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Race & ancestry

Group	%
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	83.7%
▶Hispanic / Latino(12)	5.2%
▶Black / African American(9)	4.3%
▶Asian(6)	1.5%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(3)	0.1%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3)	0.3%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(2)	0.4%
Multiracial / Other	4.6%

View full demographics →

Religious adherence

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents
Evangelical Protestant	19.9%	68.9%
Mainline Protestant	3.5%	12.2%
Catholic	3.2%	11.1%
Other	1.5%	5.1%
LDS (Mormon)	0.8%	2.9%
Black Protestant	0.8%	2.7%
Non-religious	71.1%	—

View full religion →

Presidential results

Year	Result
2024	Trump+39.6
2020	Trump+36.8
2016	Trump+36.5
2012	Romney+24.2
2008	McCain+12.2
2004	Bush+22.1
2000	Bush+14.4
1996	Dole+0.4
1992	Clinton+3.4

View full election history →

Warrensburg, MO is a metro area that has a population of 54,732. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+39.6. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.

Warrensburg, MO Presidential Election Results, 1948–2024
Year	Dem %	Rep %	Margin	Swing
2024	29.5%	69.1%	R+39.6	R+2.7
2020	30.2%	67.0%	R+36.8	R+0.4
2016	27.8%	64.2%	R+36.5	R+12.2
2012	36.5%	60.7%	R+24.2	R+12.0
2008	42.9%	55.2%	R+12.2	D+9.8
2004	38.5%	60.6%	R+22.1	R+7.7
2000	41.3%	55.6%	R+14.4	R+14.0
1996	42.7%	43.1%	R+0.4	R+3.8
1992	36.5%	33.1%	D+3.4	D+19.9
1988	41.6%	58.1%	R+16.6	D+16.4
1984	33.5%	66.5%	R+33.0	R+25.0
1980	43.2%	51.2%	R+8.0	R+8.3
1976	49.5%	49.1%	D+0.3	D+41.1
1972	29.6%	70.4%	R+40.7	R+26.3
1968	37.3%	51.8%	R+14.5	R+33.6
1964	59.6%	40.4%	D+19.2	D+38.5
1960	40.3%	59.7%	R+19.3	R+0.7
1956	40.7%	59.3%	R+18.6	D+5.3
1952	38.0%	61.8%	R+23.8	R+23.7
1948	49.9%	50.0%	R+0.2	—

Political Identity

What defines Warrensburg, MO?

Warrensburg, MO voted overwhelmingly Republican in 2024. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, revealing how its political character has evolved over more than a century.

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar metro areas

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.

8 visible matches

Maryville, MO

Educated rural competitive

R+43.7

Similarity score94%

Cedar City, UT

Small-town rural republican 3

R+56.4

Similarity score92%

Hays, KS

Educated rural competitive

R+45.9

Similarity score91%

Fort Leonard Wood, MO

Educated rural competitive

R+50.3

Similarity score91%

Rolla, MO

Small-town rural republican 3

R+42.9

Similarity score91%

Jacksonville, NC

Educated rural competitive

R+35.8

Similarity score89%

Rexburg, ID

Educated rural competitive

R+66.0

Similarity score89%

Pocatello, ID

Small-town rural republican 2

R+25.0

Similarity score89%

Constituent Geography

Counties in Warrensburg, MO

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Johnson	55K	R+39.6	6,960	16,298	23,602	100.0%

1 countiesTotal votes: 23,602

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Warrensburg, MO's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Warrensburg, MO metro area voted in presidential elections?”

Automated Readout

Key Insights

High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.

Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 39.6% margin
Shifted 15.3 points toward Republicans over the last 4 elections

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

Warrensburg, MOCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 83.7%Hispanic 5.2%Multiracial 4.6%Black 4.3%Asian 1.5%Native Hawaiian 0.4%

Group	Warrensburg, MO	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	83.7%	57.4%
▶Hispanic / Latino(12)	5.2%	19.3%
Multiracial / Other	4.6%	4.0%
▶Black / African American(9)	4.3%	12.2%
▶Asian(6)	1.5%	6.0%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(2)	0.4%	0.2%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3)	0.3%	0.9%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(3)	0.1%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

28.9%(15.8K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: -62.2pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Evangelical Protestant	19.9%	68.9%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	3.5%	12.2%	—	—
Catholic	3.2%	11.1%	—	—
Other	1.5%	5.1%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	0.8%	2.9%	—	—
Black Protestant	0.8%	2.7%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	71.1%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Who lives in the Warrensburg, MO metro area? 54,732 residents across 1 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

Warrensburg, MO vs National55K residents

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

55K

local

55KNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.02%

local

0.02%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

70.8%

local

70.8%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$67,272

local

$67,272National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

11.8%

local

11.8%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

29.1%

local

29.1%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

63.5%

local

63.5%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

31.5 yrs

local

31.5 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

26.1%

local

26.1%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

13.1%

local

13.1%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

3.0%

local

3.0%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

4.9%

local

4.9%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

95.1%

local

95.1%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Warrensburg, MO

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.

2024 Turnout

60.9%

vs Previous

+1.3pp

Voting-Age Pop

38,769

History

1988–2024

Competitiveness

How competitive is Warrensburg, MO?

Safe RAvg margin: R+37.6 (last 3 elections)

2008

R+12.2

2012

R+24.2

2016

R+36.5

2020

R+36.8

2024

R+39.6

Elasticity

27.3pp

margin range

Party Flips

last 30 years

5-Elec Avg

R+29.9

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Warrensburg, MO split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (37/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
Senate vs Governor	R+33.4	R+39.6	6.3pp
President vs Senate	R+39.6	R+33.4	6.2pp
President vs Governor	R+39.6	R+39.6	0.1pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 12.0pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Warrensburg, MO sits inside these higher-level geographies.

Missouri(State)

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