Natchez, MS-LA
Leans Democratic — shifted 3.1pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 54K residents — 3 counties
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 40.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(12) | 3.1% |
▶Black / African American(5) | 53.9% |
▶Asian(4) | 0.3% |
Native American / Alaska Native | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 2.5% |
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 36.3% | 52.8% |
| Black Protestant | 20.8% | 30.3% |
| Mainline Protestant | 5.7% | 8.3% |
| Catholic | 3.5% | 5.1% |
| Other | 2.4% | 3.5% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.0% | 1.5% |
| Non-religious | 31.2% | — |
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+6.8 |
| 2020 | Biden+10.0 |
| 2016 | Clinton+9.5 |
| 2012 | Obama+15.8 |
| 2008 | Obama+13.1 |
| 2004 | Kerry+5.9 |
| 2000 | Gore+9.3 |
| 1996 | Clinton+24.0 |
| 1992 | Clinton+20.0 |
Natchez, MS-LA is a metro area that has a population of 54,045. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+6.8. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 52.9% | 46.1% | D+6.8 | R+3.1 |
| 2020 | 54.4% | 44.4% | D+10.0 | D+0.5 |
| 2016 | 54.1% | 44.6% | D+9.5 | R+6.3 |
| 2012 | 57.6% | 41.7% | D+15.8 | D+2.8 |
| 2008 | 56.1% | 43.0% | D+13.1 | D+7.2 |
| 2004 | 52.6% | 46.7% | D+5.9 | R+3.5 |
| 2000 | 53.8% | 44.5% | D+9.3 | R+14.7 |
| 1996 | 58.3% | 34.3% | D+24.0 | D+4.0 |
| 1992 | 53.7% | 33.7% | D+20.0 | D+19.9 |
| 1988 | 49.3% | 49.2% | D+0.1 | D+7.3 |
| 1984 | 45.9% | 53.2% | R+7.2 | R+10.2 |
| 1980 | 49.9% | 46.9% | D+3.0 | R+5.0 |
| 1976 | 51.9% | 43.9% | D+8.0 | D+38.7 |
| 1972 | 32.7% | 63.5% | R+30.8 | R+58.3 |
| 1968 | 38.2% | 10.6% | D+27.6 | D+97.6 |
| 1964 | 15.0% | 85.0% | R+70.0 | R+70.8 |
| 1960 | 25.4% | 24.6% | D+0.8 | D+4.6 |
| 1956 | 33.7% | 37.6% | R+3.8 | D+0.4 |
| 1952 | 47.9% | 52.1% | R+4.3 | R+8.6 |
| 1948 | 8.7% | 4.3% | D+4.4 | — |
What defines Natchez, MS-LA?
It has a plurality-minority electorate (60% nonwhite) where demographic change is reshaping the political map.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Counties in Natchez, MS-LA
Ask the Historian
Key Insights
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- College attainment is 19% — 15pp below the national average. Similar education levels correlate with Republican lean nationally
- Turnout decreased by 9.0 percentage points since the previous presidential election
Who Lives Here
| Group | Natchez, MS-LA | National |
|---|---|---|
▶Black / African American(5) | 53.9% | 12.2% |
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 40.2% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(12) | 3.1% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 2.5% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(4) | 0.3% | 6.0% |
Native American / Alaska Native | 0.1% | 0.9% |
Religious Adherents
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -52.1pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36.3% | 52.8% | — | — | |
| 20.8% | 30.3% | — | — | |
| 5.7% | 8.3% | — | — | |
| 3.5% | 5.1% | — | — | |
| 2.4% | 3.5% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.0% | 1.5% | — | — |
Non-religiousPopulation | 31.2% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Natchez, MS-LA metro area? 54,045 residents across 3 counties.
Demographics
19% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 15pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+15 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Turnout in Natchez, MS-LA
How competitive is Natchez, MS-LA?
Do voters in Natchez, MS-LA split their tickets?
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | D+6.8 | D+21.7 | 14.9pp |