Oak Harbor, WA
Latest: 2024
Safe Democratic — shifted 4.5pp toward Democrats in 2024 — 87K residents — 1 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 75.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(16) | 8.7% |
▶Black / African American(9) | 2.3% |
▶Asian(6) | 4.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(8) | 0.4% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(4) | 1.0% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(4) | 0.4% |
Multiracial / Other | 7.2% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 40.7% | 73.0% |
| Catholic | 6.1% | 10.9% |
| Mainline Protestant | 4.7% | 8.4% |
| Other | 4.3% | 7.8% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 3.6% | 6.5% |
| Non-religious | 44.2% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+16.5 |
| 2020 | Biden+12.0 |
| 2016 | Clinton+5.6 |
| 2012 | Obama+4.4 |
| 2008 | Obama+6.2 |
| 2004 | Bush+4.0 |
| 2000 | Bush+4.9 |
| 1996 | Dole+0.8 |
| 1992 | Clinton+0.1 |
Oak Harbor, WA is a metro area that has a population of 86,836. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+16.5. Akashic Edge tracks 34 presidential elections here, dating back to 1892.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 56.4% | 40.0% | D+16.5 | D+4.5 |
| 2020 | 54.2% | 42.2% | D+12.0 | D+6.4 |
| 2016 | 47.3% | 41.7% | D+5.6 | D+1.2 |
| 2012 | 50.7% | 46.3% | D+4.4 | R+1.8 |
| 2008 | 52.3% | 46.1% | D+6.2 | D+10.2 |
| 2004 | 47.2% | 51.2% | R+4.0 | D+1.0 |
| 2000 | 44.8% | 49.7% | R+4.9 | R+4.1 |
| 1996 | 42.7% | 43.5% | R+0.8 | R+0.9 |
| 1992 | 35.2% | 35.1% | D+0.1 | D+19.0 |
| 1988 | 39.9% | 58.8% | R+18.9 | D+13.6 |
| 1984 | 33.2% | 65.7% | R+32.5 | R+2.8 |
| 1980 | 29.2% | 58.9% | R+29.7 | R+15.9 |
| 1976 | 41.5% | 55.3% | R+13.8 | D+25.7 |
| 1972 | 28.6% | 68.1% | R+39.5 | R+28.9 |
| 1968 | 40.3% | 51.0% | R+10.6 | R+23.5 |
| 1964 | 56.4% | 43.5% | D+12.9 | D+31.4 |
| 1960 | 40.5% | 59.0% | R+18.5 | D+4.3 |
| 1956 | 38.5% | 61.2% | R+22.7 | D+1.3 |
| 1952 | 37.7% | 61.7% | R+24.0 | R+21.0 |
| 1948 | 46.0% | 49.0% | R+3.0 | — |
What defines Oak Harbor, WA?
Oak Harbor, WA has been drifting steadily toward Democrats — 12pp bluer over the last 4 presidential cycles. It has a moderately diverse, middle-class electorate where education levels and suburban growth shape the partisan balance.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Bremerton-Silverdale-Port Orchard, WA
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Port Angeles, WA
Small-town rural republican
Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
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Hudson, NY
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Durango, CO
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Easton, MD
Small-town rural republican
Barnstable Town, MA
Educated rural democratic
Counties in Oak Harbor, WA
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Island | 87K | D+16.4 | 29,595 | 20,967 | 52,449 | 100.0% |
1 countiesTotal votes: 52,449
Ask the Historian
Explore Oak Harbor, WA's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2024, Republicans in 2004
- Shifted 12.0 points toward Democrats over the last 4 elections
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Oak Harbor, WA | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 75.4% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(16) | 8.7% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 7.2% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 4.9% | 6.0% |
▶Black / African American(9) | 2.3% | 12.2% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(4) | 1.0% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(4) | 0.4% | 0.2% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(8) | 0.4% | 0.9% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
55.8%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -66.6pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40.7% | 73.0% | — | — | |
| 6.1% | 10.9% | — | — | |
| 4.7% | 8.4% | — | — | |
| 4.3% | 7.8% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 3.6% | 6.5% | — | — |
Non-religiousPopulation | 44.2% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Oak Harbor, WA metro area? 86,836 residents across 1 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
87K
Share of U.S. population
0.03%
Voting-age population
80.1%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$90,551
Poverty rate
7.7%
College degree
36.6%
Homeownership
74.8%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
44.8 yrs
Age 18–29
14.8%
Age 65+
26.8%
Foreign born
8.0%
Non-English at home
9.4%
English only
90.6%
Turnout in Oak Harbor, WA
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
75.5%
-2.1pp
69,514
1988–2024
How competitive is Oak Harbor, WA?
Likely DAvg margin: D+11.4 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+6.2
2012
D+4.4
2016
D+5.6
2020
D+12.0
2024
D+16.5
12.0pp
1
D+8.9
Do voters in Oak Harbor, WA split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Moderate splitting (61/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Governor | D+16.5 | D+8.2 | 8.2pp |
| Senate vs Governor | D+14.8 | D+8.2 | 6.6pp |
| President vs Senate | D+16.5 | D+14.8 | 1.7pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 8.2pp
Located In
Oak Harbor, WA sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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