How did NY-HD-45, New York vote in the 2024 presidential election?

NY-HD-45, New York voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+49.8. Kamala D Harris received 8,282 votes and Donald Trump received 25,164 out of 33,908 total votes cast, a 14.2-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is NY-HD-45, New York's political history?

NY-HD-45, New York has 5 presidential elections on record, spanning 2008 to 2024. It has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2008. The largest single-election swing was 14.2 points in 2024.

What are the demographics of NY-HD-45, New York?

NY-HD-45, New York has a population of 132,611 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 63.7% non-Hispanic white, 10.6% Hispanic, 2.9% Black.

Which places are most similar to NY-HD-45, New York?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar state house districts to NY-HD-45, New York are Michigan State House District 60, New York Assembly District 49, New York Assembly District 27. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

New York Assembly District 45

New York · Latest: 2024↓ R+14.2 vs 2020

Safe Republican — shifted 14.2pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 133K residents

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Similarity Explorer

Similar state house districts

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.

8 visible matches

Michigan State House District 60MI

Suburban Competitive

R+22.6

Similarity score93%

New York Assembly District 49NY

Diverse urban democratic 3

R+19.9

Similarity score93%

New York Assembly District 27NY

Diverse urban democratic 3

R+9.7

Similarity score92%

Ohio State House District 45OH

Urban Competitive

R+19.3

Similarity score92%

Michigan State House District 55MI

Suburban Competitive

R+0.7

Similarity score90%

Georgia State House District 100GA

Suburban Competitive

R+19.2

Similarity score90%

Ohio State House District 10OH

Suburban Competitive

R+2.4

Similarity score89%

Michigan State House District 54MI

Suburban Competitive

R+1.0

Similarity score89%

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore NY-HD-45's political evolution with the Historian

“How has New York Assembly District 45 voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

NY-HD-45Census ACS 2024

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 63.7%Asian 18.8%Hispanic 10.6%Multiracial 3.5%Black 2.9%Native American 0.5%

Group	NY-HD-45	State	National
White (Non-Hispanic)	63.7%	52.8%	57.4%
Asian	18.8%	9.1%	6.0%
Hispanic / Latino	10.6%	19.8%	19.3%
Multiracial / Other	3.5%	3.4%	4.0%
Black / African American	2.9%	14.4%	12.2%
Native American / Alaska Native	0.5%	0.6%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Detailed ancestry data unavailable for this geography.

Who lives in New York Assembly District 45? 132,611 residents as of the 2020 Census.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

NY-HD-45 vs New York vs National133K residents

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

133K

local

133KState 19.9MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.04%

local

0.04%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

76.9%

local

76.9%State 76.5%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState $89,823National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 14.0%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 40.0%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 54.4%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 39.9 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 15.9%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 17.9%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 22.8%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 30.9%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 69.1%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in NY-HD-45

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.

2024 Turnout

33.2%

vs Previous

-3.1pp

Voting-Age Pop

102,030

History

2008–2024

Competitiveness

How competitive is NY-HD-45?

Safe RAvg margin: R+35.9 (last 3 elections)

2008

R+23.1

2012

R+22.9

2016

R+22.2

2020

R+35.6

2024

R+49.8

Elasticity

27.6pp

margin range

Party Flips

last 30 years

5-Elec Avg

R+30.7

Other New York State House Districts

149 total

Name	Margin ↓
NY-HD-58	D+84.9
NY-HD-52	D+82.0
NY-HD-57	D+81.4
NY-HD-55	D+80.5
NY-HD-56	D+80.5
NY-HD-70	D+77.2
NY-HD-69	D+76.3
NY-HD-60	D+75.0
NY-HD-83	D+74.2
NY-HD-141	D+71.3
NY-HD-66	D+70.3
NY-HD-67	D+69.7
NY-HD-29	D+67.7
NY-HD-71	D+67.5
NY-HD-43	D+66.8
NY-HD-75	D+65.3
NY-HD-42	D+64.2
NY-HD-68	D+64.1
NY-HD-32	D+64.0
NY-HD-74	D+63.8
NY-HD-44	D+62.8
NY-HD-18	D+61.7
NY-HD-53	D+60.4
NY-HD-76	D+58.6
NY-HD-31	D+56.1

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