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Texas State House District 38

Texas State House District 38

Texas · Latest: 2024↓ R+18.3 vs 2020

Competitive — shifted 18.3pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 186K residents

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Texas State House District 38 is a state house district that has a population of 186,146. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+0.7. Akashic Edge tracks 5 presidential elections here, dating back to 2008.

Texas State House District 38 Presidential Election Results, 2008–2024
YearDem %Rep %MarginSwing
202449.9%49.2%D+0.7R+18.3
2020*59.1%40.1%D+19.0R+33.8
2016*74.3%21.5%D+52.7D+0.8
2012*76.0%24.0%D+51.9D+4.5
2008*73.3%25.9%D+47.5—

* Pre-2022 results projected onto current district boundaries. Actual boundaries at the time of the election may have differed.

Political Identity

What defines TX-HD-38?

It has a majority-minority electorate where racial demographics are the primary driver of partisan lean.

Similarity Explorer

Similar state house districts

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
8 visible matches
Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore TX-HD-38's political evolution with the Historian
Automated Readout

Key Insights

High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
  • Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
  • The 2024 election was decided by just 0.7 points — razor-thin
  • Swung 18.3 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024
Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
TX-HD-38Census ACS 2024
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
Expand rows for ancestry detail
Hispanic 94.2%White (Non-Hispanic) 4.6%Native American 0.7%Asian 0.6%Black 0.3%
GroupTX-HD-38StateNational
Hispanic / Latino
94.2%39.7%19.3%
White (Non-Hispanic)
4.6%39.1%57.4%
Native American / Alaska Native
0.7%0.7%0.9%
Asian
0.6%5.6%6.0%
Black / African American
0.3%12.2%12.2%
Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Detailed ancestry data unavailable for this geography.

Who lives in Texas State House District 38? 186,146 residents as of the 2020 Census.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
TX-HD-38 vs Texas vs National186K residents
Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population
Local vs state vs U.S.
186K
local
186KState 30.2MNational 334.9M
Share of U.S. population
Local vs state vs U.S.
0.06%
local
0.06%National 100%
Voting-age population
Local vs state vs U.S.
71.3%
local
71.3%State 73.0%National 75.7%
Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income
Local vs state vs U.S.
N/A
local
N/AState $80,443National $83,960
Poverty rate
Local vs state vs U.S.
N/A
local
N/AState 13.8%National 12.5%
College degree
Local vs state vs U.S.
N/A
local
N/AState 33.7%National 35.6%
Homeownership
Local vs state vs U.S.
N/A
local
N/AState 62.6%National 65.2%
Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age
Local vs state vs U.S.
N/A
local
N/AState 35.7 yrsNational 39.1 yrs
Age 18–29
Local vs state vs U.S.
N/A
local
N/AState 16.8%National 15.7%
Age 65+
Local vs state vs U.S.
N/A
local
N/AState 13.4%National 17.0%
Foreign born
Local vs state vs U.S.
N/A
local
N/AState 17.6%National 14.1%
Non-English at home
Local vs state vs U.S.
N/A
local
N/AState 35.1%National 22.2%
English only
Local vs state vs U.S.
N/A
local
N/AState 64.9%National 77.8%
Voter Turnout

Turnout in TX-HD-38

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
2024 Turnout
35.2%
vs Previous
-38.7pp
Voting-Age Pop
132,800
History
2008–2024
Competitiveness

How competitive is TX-HD-38?

Safe DAvg margin: D+24.1 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+47.5
2012
D+51.9
2016
D+52.7
2020
D+19.0
2024
D+0.7
Elasticity
52.0pp
margin range
Party Flips
0
last 30 years
5-Elec Avg
D+34.4

Other Texas State House Districts

149 total
NameMargin ↓
TX-HD-49D+60.3
TX-HD-110D+55.8
TX-HD-100D+54.5
TX-HD-146D+53.6
TX-HD-51D+53.0
TX-HD-109D+51.7
TX-HD-147D+51.3
TX-HD-111D+50.7
TX-HD-141D+50.4
TX-HD-131D+48.0
TX-HD-50D+47.6
TX-HD-46D+44.0
TX-HD-95D+41.3
TX-HD-48D+40.4
TX-HD-139D+38.2
TX-HD-142D+37.6
TX-HD-27D+35.1
TX-HD-103D+34.3
TX-HD-145D+32.7
TX-HD-77D+31.2
TX-HD-114D+27.8
TX-HD-116D+27.6
TX-HD-90D+26.9
TX-HD-123D+26.8
TX-HD-101D+26.6
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