WI, the full state outline.

Wisconsin swung 13.5 points left in a single cycle between 2004 and 2008, jumping from D+0.4 to D+13.9 as Obama redrew the map. That break is the pivot of the arc — every cycle since has walked the margin back toward the knife's edge the state held in 2000 and 2004. The 2012→2016 cycle erased another 7.7 points, flipping Wisconsin to R+0.8 and ending two decades of Democratic presidential wins. Across the full 24-year span, the net movement is just 1.1 points right, finishing at R+0.9 in 2024 after D+0.2 in 2000. The Obama spike aside, Wisconsin has been a sub-1-point state in five of the last seven cycles.

Wisconsin is 80.1% white across 5.91 million people, with a non-Hispanic white share of roughly 72.1%. Hispanic residents make up 8.0% and Black residents 6.1%, leaving the state less diverse than the national composition. Median household income sits at $78,400 and 33.6% of adults hold a bachelor's degree, with poverty at 10.6% and the foreign-born share at 5.2%.