Surprise City, Arizona
Safe Republican — shifted 4.4pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 143K residents
| Group | % |
|---|---|
White (Non-Hispanic) | 66.3% |
Hispanic / Latino | 19.8% |
Black / African American | 5.5% |
Asian | 2.8% |
Native American / Alaska Native | 0.9% |
Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander | 0.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.6% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Median household income | — |
| Bachelor's or higher | — |
| English only at home | — |
| Other language at home | — |
| Foreign-born | — |
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+23.1 |
| 2020 | Trump+18.7 |
| 2016 | Trump+23.1 |
| 2012 | Romney+24.0 |
| 2008 | McCain+18.4 |
Surprise City, Arizona is a city that has a population of 143,148. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+23.1. Akashic Edge tracks 5 presidential elections here, dating back to 2008.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 38.1% | 61.1% | R+23.1 | R+4.4 |
| 2020 | 40.0% | 58.7% | R+18.7 | D+4.4 |
| 2016 | 35.3% | 58.4% | R+23.1 | D+0.9 |
| 2012 | 38.0% | 62.0% | R+24.0 | R+5.6 |
| 2008 | 40.2% | 58.6% | R+18.4 | — |
What defines Surprise City?
It has a working-class electorate (0% college-educated) — a demographic increasingly aligned with Republicans nationwide.
Similar cities
Located In
Ask the Historian
Key Insights
- Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 23.1% margin
- Turnout increased by 6.8 percentage points since the previous presidential election
Who Lives Here
| Group | Surprise City | National |
|---|---|---|
White (Non-Hispanic) | 66.3% | 57.4% |
Hispanic / Latino | 19.8% | 19.3% |
Black / African American | 5.5% | 12.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.6% | 4.0% |
Asian | 2.8% | 6.0% |
Native American / Alaska Native | 0.9% | 0.9% |
Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander | 0.2% | 0.2% |
Who lives in Surprise City? 143,148 residents as of the 2020 Census.
Demographics
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.