Merced County, California
Latest: 2024
Competitive — shifted 15.0pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 40 presidential elections on record
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 23.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 63.4% |
▶Black / African American(8) | 2.8% |
▶Asian(6) | 7.2% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(8) | 0.4% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 1.5% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(5) | 0.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 1.6% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 33.9% | 75.1% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 7.0% | 15.6% |
| Other | 2.8% | 6.2% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.0% | 2.3% |
| Black Protestant | 0.8% | 1.8% |
| Mainline Protestant | 0.6% | 1.3% |
| Non-religious | 54.9% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+4.4 |
| 2020 | Biden+10.6 |
| 2016 | Clinton+12.1 |
| 2012 | Obama+8.7 |
| 2008 | Obama+8.3 |
| 2004 | Bush+14.3 |
| 2000 | Bush+6.7 |
| 1996 | Clinton+2.0 |
| 1992 | Clinton+4.4 |
Merced, California is a county that has a population of 290,201. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+4.4. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 46.5% | 50.9% | R+4.4 | R+15.0 |
| 2020 | 54.1% | 43.5% | D+10.6 | R+1.5 |
| 2016 | 52.5% | 40.4% | D+12.1 | D+3.4 |
| 2012 | 53.0% | 44.3% | D+8.7 | D+0.4 |
| 2008 | 53.1% | 44.8% | D+8.3 | D+22.6 |
| 2004 | 42.3% | 56.5% | R+14.3 | R+7.6 |
| 2000 | 45.1% | 51.8% | R+6.7 | R+8.7 |
| 1996 | 46.4% | 44.4% | D+2.0 | R+2.4 |
| 1992 | 40.9% | 36.5% | D+4.4 | D+8.2 |
| 1988 | 47.4% | 51.2% | R+3.8 | D+15.0 |
| 1984 | 40.0% | 58.8% | R+18.8 | R+13.0 |
| 1980 | 42.9% | 48.8% | R+5.8 | R+11.4 |
| 1976 | 51.7% | 46.1% | D+5.6 | D+17.3 |
| 1972 | 42.6% | 54.3% | R+11.7 | R+21.8 |
| 1968 | 51.0% | 40.9% | D+10.1 | R+27.5 |
| 1964 | 68.7% | 31.2% | D+37.6 | D+24.7 |
| 1960 | 56.2% | 43.4% | D+12.9 | D+5.1 |
| 1956 | 53.8% | 46.0% | D+7.8 | D+14.1 |
| 1952 | 46.4% | 52.7% | R+6.3 | R+18.7 |
| 1948 | 54.9% | 42.6% | D+12.3 | — |
What defines Merced?
Merced flipped to Republicans in 2024 after voting the other way in 2020. It has a majority-minority electorate where racial demographics are the primary driver of partisan lean. Voter engagement runs low — in the bottom 15% of peers for turnout in 2024.
County in State Context
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Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Swung 15.0 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2020, Republicans in 2024
- Turnout of 42.7% in 2024 ranked 56 of 58 in the state — bottom quartile
Located In
Merced sits inside these higher-level geographies.