How did Merced, CA vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Merced, CA voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+4.4. Kamala D Harris received 40,190 votes and Donald Trump received 43,955 out of 86,392 total votes cast, a 15.0-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Merced, CA's political history?

Merced, CA has 40 presidential elections on record, spanning 1868 to 2024. Democrats have won 27 and Republicans 13 of those contests. The largest single-election swing was 61.3 points in 1932.

What are the demographics of Merced, CA?

Merced, CA has a population of 290,201 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 23.2% non-Hispanic white, 63.4% Hispanic, 2.8% Black. About 15% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $65,510.

Which places are most similar to Merced, CA?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar metro areas to Merced, CA are Visalia, CA, Fresno, CA, Bakersfield-Delano, CA. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Merced, CA

Latest: 2024↓ R+15.0 vs 2020

Competitive — shifted 15.0pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 290K residents — 1 counties

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POPULATION
290K
COUNTIES
1
PRES MARGIN
R+4.4
2024
TURNOUT
42.7%
MEDIAN INCOME
$66K

Place Story

What defines Merced, CA

Methodology

Leans Democratic
- Lean D
Competitive with a modest baseline — persuasion matters on the margin.
Biggest swing: D+61.3 in 1932
- 1928 → 1932
Volatile behavior — treat historical margins with caution.
Demographically distinctive: 63% Hispanic (+44pp vs national)
- 63% Hispanic (+44pp vs national)
- 23% non-Hispanic white (-34pp vs national)
Catholic edge: 60pp over Evangelicals
- 75% Catholic / 16% Evangelical
Correlates nationally with Democratic-leaning behavior.
Ticket-splitting: Senate ran 96.0pp ahead of Governor
- Divergence 96.0pp in 2018
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar metro areas

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.

8 visible matches

Visalia, CA

Diverse rural democratic

R+20.9

Similarity score98%

Fresno, CA

Diverse rural democratic

R+6.7

Similarity score97%

Bakersfield-Delano, CA

Diverse rural democratic

R+21.1

Similarity score97%

Modesto, CA

Diverse rural democratic

Diverse rural democratic

D+29.9

Similarity score95%

El Centro, CA

Diverse rural competitive

Constituent Geography

Counties in Merced, CA

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Merced	290K	R+4.4	40,190	43,955	86,392	100.0%

1 countiesTotal votes: 86,392

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Merced, CA's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Merced, CA metro area voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

Merced, CACensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

Hispanic 63.4%White (Non-Hispanic) 23.2%Asian 7.2%Black 2.8%Multiracial 1.6%Native American 1.5%Native Hawaiian 0.3%

Group	Merced, CA	National
▶Hispanic / Latino(18)	63.4%	19.3%
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	23.2%	57.4%
▶Asian(6)	7.2%	6.0%
▶Black / African American(8)	2.8%	12.2%
Multiracial / Other	1.6%	4.0%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2)	1.5%	0.9%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(8)	0.4%	0.9%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(5)	0.3%	0.2%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

43.7%(126.9K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: +55.0pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Catholic	32.9%	75.1%	—	—
Evangelical Protestant	6.8%	15.6%	—	—
Other	2.7%	6.2%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	1.0%	2.3%	—	—
Black Protestant	0.8%	1.8%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	0.6%	1.3%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	56.3%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Catholic adherence nationally

Who lives in the Merced, CA metro area? 290,201 residents across 1 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

Merced, CA vs National290K residents

15% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 18pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+22 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

290K

local

290KNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.09%

local

0.09%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

69.8%

local

69.8%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$65,510

local

$65,510National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

19.1%

local

19.1%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

15.3%

local

15.3%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

54.0%

local

54.0%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

31.8 yrs

local

31.8 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

18.5%

local

18.5%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

11.7%

local

11.7%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

25.6%

local

25.6%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

52.7%

local

52.7%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

47.3%

local

47.3%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Merced, CA

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.

2024 Turnout

42.7%

vs Previous

-2.0pp

Voting-Age Pop

202,475

History

1988–2024

Competitiveness

How competitive is Merced, CA?

Lean DAvg margin: D+6.1 (last 3 elections)

2008

D+8.3

2012

D+8.7

2016

D+12.1

2020

D+10.6

2024

R+4.4

Elasticity

16.4pp

margin range

Party Flips

last 30 years

5-Elec Avg

D+7.1

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Merced, CA split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (0/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Senate	R+4.4	R+3.5	0.9pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 31.3pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Merced, CA sits inside these higher-level geographies.

California(State)

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