Fresno-Visalia
Latest: 2024
Leans Republican — shifted 12.5pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 2.1M residents — 6 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 26.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 58.9% |
▶Black / African American(9) | 3.5% |
▶Asian(6) | 7.7% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 1.1% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(6) | 1.6% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(5) | 0.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 1.7% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 28.0% | 62.1% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 10.3% | 22.7% |
| Other | 4.6% | 10.2% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.7% | 3.9% |
| Mainline Protestant | 1.1% | 2.3% |
| Black Protestant | 0.7% | 1.6% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.5% | 1.0% |
| Non-religious | 54.9% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+10.6 |
| 2020 | Biden+1.9 |
| 2016 | Clinton+0.4 |
| 2012 | Romney+3.6 |
| 2008 | McCain+3.2 |
| 2004 | Bush+21.4 |
| 2000 | Bush+14.5 |
| 1996 | Dole+6.0 |
| 1992 | Bush+1.6 |
Fresno-Visalia is a media market that has a population of 2,116,939. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+10.6. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 43.5% | 54.1% | R+10.6 | R+12.5 |
| 2020 | 49.9% | 48.0% | D+1.9 | D+1.5 |
| 2016 | 46.5% | 46.1% | D+0.4 | D+4.0 |
| 2012 | 46.9% | 50.6% | R+3.6 | R+0.4 |
| 2008 | 47.4% | 50.6% | R+3.2 | D+18.2 |
| 2004 | 38.8% | 60.2% | R+21.4 | R+6.9 |
| 2000 | 40.9% | 55.4% | R+14.5 | R+8.5 |
| 1996 | 43.0% | 49.0% | R+6.0 | R+4.4 |
| 1992 | 39.8% | 41.4% | R+1.6 | D+5.7 |
| 1988 | 45.7% | 53.0% | R+7.2 | D+9.7 |
| 1984 | 41.0% | 58.0% | R+16.9 | R+3.3 |
| 1980 | 39.3% | 53.0% | R+13.7 | R+13.1 |
| 1976 | 48.7% | 49.2% | R+0.5 | D+9.8 |
| 1972 | 43.1% | 53.5% | R+10.3 | R+11.2 |
| 1968 | 46.1% | 45.2% | D+0.9 | R+29.3 |
| 1964 | 65.0% | 34.9% | D+30.1 | D+22.9 |
| 1960 | 53.4% | 46.2% | D+7.2 | R+1.1 |
| 1956 | 54.0% | 45.7% | D+8.3 | D+11.5 |
| 1952 | 48.0% | 51.2% | R+3.2 | R+18.6 |
| 1948 | 55.9% | 40.5% | D+15.4 | — |
What defines Fresno-Visalia?
Fresno-Visalia flipped to Republicans in 2024 after voting the other way in 2020. It has a majority-minority electorate where racial demographics are the primary driver of partisan lean.
Constituent Counties
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Houston
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Monterey-Salinas
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Counties in Fresno-Visalia
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
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Ask the Historian
Explore Fresno-Visalia's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- The 2016 election was decided by just 0.4 points — razor-thin
- Swung 12.5 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2020, Republicans in 2024
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Fresno-Visalia | National |
|---|---|---|
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 58.9% | 19.3% |
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 26.4% | 57.4% |
▶Asian(6) | 7.7% | 6.0% |
▶Black / African American(9) | 3.5% | 12.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 1.7% | 4.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(6) | 1.6% | 0.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 1.1% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(5) | 0.2% | 0.2% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
45.2%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +34.9pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.0% | 62.1% | — | — | |
| 10.3% | 22.7% | — | — | |
| 4.6% | 10.2% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.7% | 3.9% | — | — |
| 1.1% | 2.3% | — | — | |
| 0.7% | 1.6% | — | — | |
| 0.5% | 1.0% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 54.9% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Fresno-Visalia media market? 2,116,939 residents across 6 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
20% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 13pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+15 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
2.1M
Share of U.S. population
0.63%
Voting-age population
69.4%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$72,299
Poverty rate
18.2%
College degree
20.1%
Homeownership
56.9%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
33.1 yrs
Age 18–29
17.2%
Age 65+
12.6%
Foreign born
21.1%
Non-English at home
46.1%
English only
53.9%
Turnout in Fresno-Visalia
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
44.6%
-3.7pp
1,469,902
1988–2024
How competitive is Fresno-Visalia?
Tilt RAvg margin: R+2.8 (last 3 elections)
2008
R+3.2
2012
R+3.6
2016
D+0.4
2020
D+1.9
2024
R+10.6
12.5pp
2
R+3.0
Do voters in Fresno-Visalia split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (0/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+10.6 | R+12.1 | 1.4pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 33.1pp
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