
Leans Democratic — shifted 7.9pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 40 presidential elections on record
POPULATION
868K
COMPETITIVENESS
Likely D
2024 PRES
D+9.9
TURNOUT
63.6%
#10 in state
MEDIAN INCOME
$96K
COLLEGE+
40%
Place Story
Leans Democratic since 1992
Catholic edge: 62pp over Evangelicals
Correlates nationally with Democratic-leaning behavior.
Ticket-splitting: Senate ran 95.6pp ahead of Governor
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.