
Safe Republican — shifted 3.0pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 40 presidential elections on record
POPULATION
41K
COMPETITIVENESS
Safe R
2024 PRES
R+31.3
TURNOUT
72.4%
#61 in state
MEDIAN INCOME
$64K
COLLEGE+
19%
Place Story
Demographically distinctive: 83% non-Hispanic white (+26pp vs national)
Evangelical edge: 43pp over Catholics
Correlates nationally with Republican-leaning behavior.
Ticket-splitting: President ran 20.6pp behind Senate
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.