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Flint-Saginaw-Bay City

Flint-Saginaw-Bay City

Latest: 2024↓ R+4.0 vs 2020

Leans Republican — shifted 4.0pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 1.1M residents — 13 counties

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Race & ancestry
Group%
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)
78.7%
▶Hispanic / Latino(16)
5.1%
▶Black / African American(10)
10.7%
▶Asian(6)
1.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11)
0.6%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2)
0.4%
Multiracial / Other
4.0%
View full demographics →
Religious adherence
Tradition% Pop% Adherents
Evangelical Protestant15.8%40.1%
Catholic12.5%31.8%
Mainline Protestant4.4%11.1%
Black Protestant3.9%9.9%
Other2.6%6.7%
LDS (Mormon)0.5%1.2%
Orthodox Christian0.2%0.5%
Non-religious60.5%—
View full religion →
Presidential results
YearResult
2024Trump+11.0
2020Trump+7.0
2016Trump+7.2
2012Obama+10.8
2008Obama+17.9
2004Kerry+7.0
2000Gore+10.9
1996Clinton+20.0
1992Clinton+15.1
View full election history →

Flint-Saginaw-Bay City is a media market that has a population of 1,123,771. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+11.0. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.

Flint-Saginaw-Bay City Presidential Election Results, 1948–2024
YearDem %Rep %MarginSwing
202443.8%54.8%R+11.0R+4.0
202045.7%52.7%R+7.0D+0.2
201643.5%50.7%R+7.2R+18.1
201254.7%43.9%D+10.8R+7.0
200858.0%40.1%D+17.9D+10.9
200453.1%46.0%D+7.0R+3.9
200054.3%43.4%D+10.9R+9.1
199654.2%34.3%D+20.0D+4.8
199245.8%30.7%D+15.1D+10.7
198851.9%47.5%D+4.4D+20.1
198441.9%57.6%R+15.8R+10.6
198043.2%48.4%R+5.2R+0.3
197646.9%51.8%R+4.9D+11.7
197240.7%57.3%R+16.7R+10.9
196841.5%47.3%R+5.8R+34.1
196464.1%35.7%D+28.4D+40.4
196043.9%55.9%R+12.0D+13.2
195637.3%62.5%R+25.1D+0.1
195237.0%62.3%R+25.3R+12.9
194842.6%55.0%R+12.3—
Political Identity

What defines Flint-Saginaw-Bay City?

Flint-Saginaw-Bay City has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (3D, 3R) — a genuine swing geography.

Constituent Counties

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Similarity Explorer

Similar media markets

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
8 visible matches
Constituent Geography

Counties in Flint-Saginaw-Bay City

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
CountyPop.MarginDemRepTotalShare
Genesee403K
D+4.2
114,670105,303223,26835.3%
Saginaw189K
R+3.3
49,51552,912103,84616.4%
Bay103K
R+14.7
25,76734,79261,3389.7%
Midland84K
R+15.2
20,92628,57150,3017.9%
Shiawassee68K
R+23.1
15,33524,71840,6856.4%
Isabella65K
R+7.5
14,01116,32030,8354.9%
Tuscola53K
R+43.0
8,56221,76430,7174.9%
Gratiot41K
R+31.3
6,68212,89419,8483.1%
Huron31K
R+40.6
5,52213,22418,9693.0%
Gladwin26K
R+40.7
4,50110,80915,4882.4%
Iosco25K
R+30.6
5,34410,15515,7312.5%
Ogemaw21K
R+42.0
3,5788,87912,6222.0%
Arenac15K
R+40.6
2,6626,3799,1581.4%
13 countiesTotal votes: 632,806
Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Flint-Saginaw-Bay City's political evolution with the Historian
Automated Readout

Key Insights

High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
  • Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2012, Republicans in 2024
  • Highly elastic — margins have ranged 28.9 points across recent elections, suggesting a volatile electorate
  • College attainment is 24% — 9pp below the national average. Similar education levels correlate with Republican lean nationally
Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Flint-Saginaw-Bay CityCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
Expand rows for ancestry detail
White (Non-Hispanic) 78.7%Black 10.7%Hispanic 5.1%Multiracial 4.0%Asian 1.0%Native American 0.4%
GroupLocalNational
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)
78.7%57.4%
▶Black / African American(10)
10.7%12.2%
▶Hispanic / Latino(16)
5.1%19.3%
Multiracial / Other
4.0%4.0%
▶Asian(6)
1.0%6.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11)
0.6%0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2)
0.4%0.9%
Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:
39.4%(443.3K people)
U.S. Religion Census 2020
Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: -12.7pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.

Tradition% Pop% AdherentsUS PopUS Adherents
Evangelical Protestant
15.8%40.1%——
Catholic
12.5%31.8%——
Mainline Protestant
4.4%11.1%——
Black Protestant
3.9%9.9%——
Other
2.6%6.7%——
LDS (Mormon)
0.5%1.2%——
Orthodox Christian
0.2%0.5%——
Non-religiousPopulation
60.5%———
Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Who lives in the Flint-Saginaw-Bay City media market? 1,123,771 residents across 13 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Flint-Saginaw-Bay City vs National1.1M residents

24% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 9pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+9 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population
Local vs state vs U.S.
1.1M
local
1.1MNational 334.9M
Share of U.S. population
Local vs state vs U.S.
0.34%
local
0.34%National 100%
Voting-age population
Local vs state vs U.S.
76.8%
local
76.8%National 75.7%
Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income
Local vs state vs U.S.
$62,375
local
$62,375National $83,960
Poverty rate
Local vs state vs U.S.
15.6%
local
15.6%National 12.5%
College degree
Local vs state vs U.S.
23.5%
local
23.5%National 35.6%
Homeownership
Local vs state vs U.S.
75.0%
local
75.0%National 65.2%
Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age
Local vs state vs U.S.
41.9 yrs
local
41.9 yrsNational 39.1 yrs
Age 18–29
Local vs state vs U.S.
15.2%
local
15.2%National 15.7%
Age 65+
Local vs state vs U.S.
20.3%
local
20.3%National 17.0%
Foreign born
Local vs state vs U.S.
2.3%
local
2.3%National 14.1%
Non-English at home
Local vs state vs U.S.
3.7%
local
3.7%National 22.2%
English only
Local vs state vs U.S.
96.3%
local
96.3%National 77.8%
Voter Turnout

Turnout in Flint-Saginaw-Bay City

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
2024 Turnout
73.3%
vs Previous
+1.4pp
Voting-Age Pop
863,156
History
1988–2024
Competitiveness

How competitive is Flint-Saginaw-Bay City?

Lean RAvg margin: R+8.4 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+17.9
2012
D+10.8
2016
R+7.2
2020
R+7.0
2024
R+11.0
Elasticity
28.9pp
margin range
Party Flips
1
last 30 years
5-Elec Avg
D+0.7
Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Flint-Saginaw-Bay City split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
ConsistencyModerate splitting (51/100)
2024 Office Comparisons
OfficesMargin AMargin BSplit
President vs SenateR+11.0R+7.73.4pp
Average divergence across office pairs: 9.8pp
Containing Geography

Located In

Flint-Saginaw-Bay City sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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