Competitive — shifted 9.7pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 40 presidential elections on record
POPULATION
276K
COMPETITIVENESS
Tilt D
2024 PRES
R+3.0
TURNOUT
61.0%
#14 in state
MEDIAN INCOME
$78K
COLLEGE+
32%
Place Story
Catholic edge: 37pp over Evangelicals
Correlates nationally with Democratic-leaning behavior.
Ticket-splitting: Senate ran 28.2pp ahead of Governor
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Atypical: older but Democratic-leaning (median age 42, D+8.5 avg)
Hypothesis — likely college-town or affluent-suburb effect.