Safe Republican — 30 presidential elections on record
POPULATION
40K
COMPETITIVENESS
Safe R
2024 PRES
R+61.5
TURNOUT
52.0%
#59 in state
MEDIAN INCOME
$51K
COLLEGE+
15%
Place Story
Evangelical edge: 75pp over Catholics
Correlates nationally with Republican-leaning behavior.
Ticket-splitting: President ran 29.7pp behind Senate
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Demographically distinctive: 15% college+ (-20pp vs national)