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Fort Smith-Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers

Fort Smith-Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers

Latest: 2024↓ R+1.3 vs 2020

Safe Republican — 931K residents — 11 counties

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  • TV HOMES

    298K

  • MARKET RANK

    #101

  • COUNTIES

    11

  • PRES MARGIN

    R+31.5

Place Story

What defines Fort Smith-Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers

Methodology

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer
Similarity Explorer

Similar media markets

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
8 visible matches
Constituent Geography

Counties in Fort Smith-Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
CountyPop.MarginDemRepTotalShare
Benton304K
R+27.0
45,23179,907128,59535.3%
Washington257K
R+6.7
43,77950,24397,15826.7%
Sebastian129K
R+37.5
13,65230,71945,45212.5%
Crawford61K
R+58.2
4,75318,61523,8346.5%
Le Flore49K
R+64.8
3,18415,33318,7545.1%
Sequoyah40K
R+61.5
2,90712,49115,5834.3%
Johnson26K
R+51.4
2,1076,7669,0592.5%
Logan21K
R+62.2
1,4646,5678,2052.3%
Madison17K
R+58.6
1,4915,8857,5012.1%
Franklin17K
R+62.4
1,2325,5826,9711.9%
Scott10K
R+73.5
4252,9133,3840.9%
11 countiesTotal votes: 364,496
Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Fort Smith-Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers's political evolution with the Historian
Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Fort Smith-Fayetteville-Springdale-RogersCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
Expand rows for ancestry detail
White (Non-Hispanic) 63.9%Hispanic 15.3%Multiracial 11.7%Asian 3.1%Black 2.5%Native American 2.3%Native Hawaiian 1.1%
GroupLocalNational
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)
63.9%57.4%
▶Hispanic / Latino(18)
15.3%19.3%
Multiracial / Other
11.7%4.0%
▶Asian(6)
3.1%6.0%
▶Black / African American(11)
2.5%12.2%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(6)
2.3%0.9%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(5)
1.1%0.2%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9)
0.2%0.9%
Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:
52.6%(490.2K people)
U.S. Religion Census 2020
Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: -51.6pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.

Tradition% Pop% AdherentsUS PopUS Adherents
Evangelical Protestant
33.9%64.4%——
Catholic
9.1%17.2%——
Mainline Protestant
4.7%9.0%——
Other
3.6%6.9%——
LDS (Mormon)
1.9%3.7%——
Black Protestant
1.3%2.4%——
Non-religiousPopulation
47.4%———
Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.
Explore Evangelical Protestant adherence nationally

Who lives in the Fort Smith-Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers media market? 931,100 residents across 11 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Fort Smith-Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers vs National931K residents
Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population
Local vs state vs U.S.
931K
local
931KNational 334.9M
Share of U.S. population
Local vs state vs U.S.
0.28%
local
0.28%National 100%
Voting-age population
Local vs state vs U.S.
73.9%
local
73.9%National 75.7%
Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income
Local vs state vs U.S.
$71,857
local
$71,857National $83,960
Poverty rate
Local vs state vs U.S.
13.2%
local
13.2%National 12.5%
College degree
Local vs state vs U.S.
29.6%
local
29.6%National 35.6%
Homeownership
Local vs state vs U.S.
65.1%
local
65.1%National 65.2%
Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age
Local vs state vs U.S.
36.4 yrs
local
36.4 yrsNational 39.1 yrs
Age 18–29
Local vs state vs U.S.
17.0%
local
17.0%National 15.7%
Age 65+
Local vs state vs U.S.
15.1%
local
15.1%National 17.0%
Foreign born
Local vs state vs U.S.
9.8%
local
9.8%National 14.1%
Non-English at home
Local vs state vs U.S.
13.9%
local
13.9%National 22.2%
English only
Local vs state vs U.S.
86.1%
local
86.1%National 77.8%
Voter Turnout

Turnout in Fort Smith-Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
2024 Turnout
53.0%
vs Previous
+1.4pp
Voting-Age Pop
688,041
History
1988–2024
Competitiveness

How competitive is Fort Smith-Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers?

Safe RAvg margin: R+32.2 (last 3 elections)
2008
R+30.8
2012
R+34.1
2016
R+34.9
2020
R+30.2
2024
R+31.5
Elasticity
4.7pp
margin range
Party Flips
0
last 30 years
5-Elec Avg
R+32.3
Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Fort Smith-Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
ConsistencyHeavy splitting (0/100)
2022 Office Comparisons
OfficesMargin AMargin BSplit
Senate vs GovernorR+56.5R+25.730.9pp
Average divergence across office pairs: 31.5pp
Containing Geography

Located In

Fort Smith-Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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