Safe Republican — shifted 7.7pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 39 presidential elections on record
POPULATION
387K
COMPETITIVENESS
Likely R
2024 PRES
R+16.2
TURNOUT
48.2%
#210 in state
MEDIAN INCOME
$69K
COLLEGE+
27%
Place Story
Leans Republican since 1980
Ticket-splitting: Senate ran 17.5pp behind Governor
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Evangelical edge: 26pp over Catholics
Correlates nationally with Republican-leaning behavior.
Demographically distinctive: 42% non-Hispanic white (-15pp vs national)
Contextual statewide polling for Texas. County pages stay rooted in county returns, but live statewide polling helps frame the current cycle.
Jasmine Crockett leads at 47.8%