How did Waco-Temple-Bryan vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Waco-Temple-Bryan voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+30.9. Kamala D Harris received 143,050 votes and Donald Trump received 273,456 out of 421,503 total votes cast, a 7.8-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Waco-Temple-Bryan's political history?

Waco-Temple-Bryan has 39 presidential elections on record, spanning 1872 to 2024. It has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1980. The largest single-election swing was 72.7 points in 1932.

What are the demographics of Waco-Temple-Bryan?

Waco-Temple-Bryan has a population of 1,144,021 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 50.8% non-Hispanic white, 25.8% Hispanic, 15.9% Black. About 29% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $66,067.

Which places are most similar to Waco-Temple-Bryan?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar media markets to Waco-Temple-Bryan are Lubbock, Lafayette, IN, Bakersfield. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Waco-Temple-Bryan

Latest: 2024↓ R+7.8 vs 2020

Safe Republican — shifted 7.8pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 1.1M residents — 14 counties

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TV HOMES
350K
MARKET RANK
#88
COUNTIES
14
PRES MARGIN
R+30.9

Place Story

What defines Waco-Temple-Bryan

Methodology

Reliably Republican since 1980
- Safe R
- 12 straight R wins
Mobilization target, not persuasion target.
Biggest swing: D+72.7 in 1932
- 1928 → 1932
Volatile behavior — treat historical margins with caution.
Ticket-splitting: Senate ran 19.4pp behind Governor
- Divergence 19.4pp in 2006
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Evangelical edge: 19pp over Catholics
- 31% Catholic / 49% Evangelical
Correlates nationally with Republican-leaning behavior.

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar media markets

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.

8 visible matches

Diverse rural competitive

Diverse rural competitive

R+10.6

Similarity score80%

Topeka

Small-town rural republican 3

Constituent Geography

Counties in Waco-Temple-Bryan

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Bell	387K	R+16.2	53,973	75,161	130,662	31.0%
McLennan	266K	R+30.8	33,863	64,606	99,672	23.6%
Brazos	242K	R+24.8	33,844	56,671	91,961	21.8%
Coryell	85K	R+40.7	6,959	16,688	23,926	5.7%
Milam	26K	R+57.3	2,331	8,691	11,098	2.6%
Lampasas	23K	R+59.5	2,232	8,961	11,301	2.7%
Limestone	22K	R+56.9	1,921	7,081	9,075	2.2%
Burleson	19K	R+62.8	1,705	7,590	9,369	2.2%
Falls	17K	R+44.7	1,713	4,520	6,277	1.5%
Robertson	17K	R+52.1	1,926	6,177	8,158	1.9%
Leon	16K	R+76.7	1,033	7,982	9,064	2.2%
Madison	14K	R+64.4	964	4,498	5,489	1.3%
San Saba	6K	R+78.8	276	2,412	2,709	0.6%
Mills	5K	R+76.9	310	2,418	2,742	0.7%

14 countiesTotal votes: 421,503

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Waco-Temple-Bryan's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Waco-Temple-Bryan media market voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

Waco-Temple-BryanCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 50.8%Hispanic 25.8%Black 15.9%Multiracial 3.5%Asian 3.0%Native American 0.6%Native Hawaiian 0.3%

Group	Waco-Temple-Bryan	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	50.8%	57.4%
▶Hispanic / Latino(19)	25.8%	19.3%
▶Black / African American(15)	15.9%	12.2%
Multiracial / Other	3.5%	4.0%
▶Asian(6)	3.0%	6.0%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(4)	0.6%	0.9%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11)	0.5%	0.9%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(5)	0.3%	0.2%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

47.7%(545.4K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: -23.3pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Evangelical Protestant	23.6%	49.5%	—	—
Catholic	14.6%	30.7%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	4.5%	9.4%	—	—
Other	2.8%	5.8%	—	—
Black Protestant	2.2%	4.5%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	1.3%	2.7%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	52.3%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Evangelical Protestant adherence nationally

Who lives in the Waco-Temple-Bryan media market? 1,144,021 residents across 14 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

Waco-Temple-Bryan vs National1.1M residents

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

1.1M

local

1.1MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.34%

local

0.34%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

70.8%

local

70.8%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$66,067

local

$66,067National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

16.6%

local

16.6%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

29.4%

local

29.4%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

58.8%

local

58.8%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

33.0 yrs

local

33.0 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

22.1%

local

22.1%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

13.6%

local

13.6%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

9.0%

local

9.0%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

19.5%

local

19.5%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

80.5%

local

80.5%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Waco-Temple-Bryan

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.

2024 Turnout

52.0%

vs Previous

+1.9pp

Voting-Age Pop

810,084

History

1988–2024

Competitiveness

How competitive is Waco-Temple-Bryan?

Safe RAvg margin: R+27.5 (last 3 elections)

2008

R+23.5

2012

R+30.2

2016

R+28.4

2020

R+23.1

2024

R+30.9

Elasticity

7.8pp

margin range

Party Flips

last 30 years

5-Elec Avg

R+27.2

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Waco-Temple-Bryan split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyModerate splitting (67/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Senate	R+30.9	R+26.7	4.2pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 7.2pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Waco-Temple-Bryan sits inside these higher-level geographies.

Texas(State)

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