Safe Republican — shifted 6.5pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 39 presidential elections on record
POPULATION
22K
COMPETITIVENESS
Safe R
2024 PRES
R+56.9
TURNOUT
55.2%
#163 in state
MEDIAN INCOME
$61K
COLLEGE+
19%
Place Story
Evangelical edge: 44pp over Catholics
Correlates nationally with Republican-leaning behavior.
Ticket-splitting: Senate ran 20.8pp behind Governor
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Demographically distinctive: 19% college+ (-17pp vs national)
Contextual statewide polling for Texas. County pages stay rooted in county returns, but live statewide polling helps frame the current cycle.
Jasmine Crockett leads at 47.8%