Safe Republican — shifted 7.5pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 39 presidential elections on record
POPULATION
266K
COMPETITIVENESS
Safe R
2024 PRES
R+30.8
TURNOUT
51.5%
#191 in state
MEDIAN INCOME
$67K
COLLEGE+
29%
Place Story
Ticket-splitting: Senate ran 26.0pp behind Governor
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Evangelical edge: 13pp over Catholics
Correlates nationally with Republican-leaning behavior.
Contextual statewide polling for Texas. County pages stay rooted in county returns, but live statewide polling helps frame the current cycle.
Jasmine Crockett leads at 47.8%