Safe Republican — shifted 6.2pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 39 presidential elections on record
POPULATION
14K
COMPETITIVENESS
Safe R
2024 PRES
R+64.4
TURNOUT
65.6%
#71 in state
MEDIAN INCOME
$75K
COLLEGE+
18%
Place Story
Ticket-splitting: Senate ran 19.2pp behind Governor
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Evangelical edge: 21pp over Catholics
Correlates nationally with Republican-leaning behavior.
Demographically distinctive: 18% college+ (-17pp vs national)
Contextual statewide polling for Texas. County pages stay rooted in county returns, but live statewide polling helps frame the current cycle.
Jasmine Crockett leads at 47.8%