Chesterfield County, Virginia
Latest: 2024
Leans Democratic — 39 presidential elections on record
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 56.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 11.9% |
▶Black / African American(15) | 23.4% |
▶Asian(6) | 3.6% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9) | 0.7% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.3% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(2) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.3% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 23.1% | 46.9% |
| Catholic | 14.2% | 28.8% |
| Mainline Protestant | 6.8% | 13.9% |
| Other | 4.2% | 8.5% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.2% | 2.5% |
| Black Protestant | 0.6% | 1.2% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| Non-religious | 50.7% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+9.0 |
| 2020 | Biden+6.7 |
| 2016 | Trump+2.3 |
| 2012 | Romney+7.7 |
| 2008 | McCain+7.5 |
| 2004 | Bush+25.7 |
| 2000 | Bush+28.2 |
| 1996 | Dole+28.3 |
| 1992 | Bush+28.1 |
Chesterfield, Virginia is a county that has a population of 377,869. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+9.0. Akashic Edge tracks 39 presidential elections here, dating back to 1872.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 53.8% | 44.8% | D+9.0 | D+2.3 |
| 2020 | 52.4% | 45.8% | D+6.7 | D+8.9 |
| 2016 | 46.0% | 48.2% | R+2.3 | D+5.5 |
| 2012 | 45.4% | 53.2% | R+7.7 | R+0.3 |
| 2008 | 45.8% | 53.3% | R+7.5 | D+18.2 |
| 2004 | 36.9% | 62.6% | R+25.7 | D+2.5 |
| 2000 | 34.8% | 63.0% | R+28.2 | D+0.1 |
| 1996 | 32.4% | 60.7% | R+28.3 | R+0.3 |
| 1992 | 27.5% | 55.6% | R+28.1 | D+23.3 |
| 1988 | 24.0% | 75.3% | R+51.4 | D+8.5 |
| 1984 | 20.0% | 79.8% | R+59.8 | R+13.5 |
| 1980 | 24.4% | 70.7% | R+46.4 | R+14.1 |
| 1976 | 33.3% | 65.5% | R+32.3 | D+39.9 |
| 1972 | 13.1% | 85.2% | R+72.2 | R+30.7 |
| 1968 | 14.5% | 56.0% | R+41.5 | R+6.3 |
| 1964 | 32.4% | 67.6% | R+35.2 | R+11.2 |
| 1960 | 37.7% | 61.7% | R+24.0 | R+1.2 |
| 1956 | 30.3% | 53.1% | R+22.8 | R+11.1 |
| 1952 | 44.1% | 55.7% | R+11.6 | R+36.4 |
| 1948 | 55.0% | 30.2% | D+24.8 | — |
What defines Chesterfield?
Chesterfield has been drifting steadily toward Democrats — 17pp bluer over the last 4 presidential cycles. It has a racially mixed, moderately educated electorate — the urban swing demographic that decides close elections.
County in State Context
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Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2024, Republicans in 2016
- Shifted 16.7 points toward Democrats over the last 4 elections
- College attainment is 44% — 11pp above the national average. Similar education levels correlate with Democratic lean nationally
Located In
Chesterfield sits inside these higher-level geographies.