Richmond, VA
Latest: 2024
Leans Democratic — 1.3M residents — 17 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 54.7% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 8.4% |
▶Black / African American(14) | 28.1% |
▶Asian(6) | 4.2% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.8% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.3% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.3% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 22.7% | 42.7% |
| Catholic | 12.0% | 22.7% |
| Mainline Protestant | 9.1% | 17.2% |
| Other | 5.8% | 10.9% |
| Black Protestant | 3.1% | 5.8% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.9% | 1.7% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| Non-religious | 46.9% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+13.4 |
| 2020 | Biden+14.4 |
| 2016 | Clinton+9.2 |
| 2012 | Obama+5.3 |
| 2008 | Obama+6.6 |
| 2004 | Bush+10.6 |
| 2000 | Bush+11.8 |
| 1996 | Dole+8.8 |
| 1992 | Bush+10.1 |
Richmond, VA is a metro area that has a population of 1,341,248. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+13.4. Akashic Edge tracks 39 presidential elections here, dating back to 1872.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 56.0% | 42.6% | D+13.4 | R+1.0 |
| 2020 | 56.3% | 41.9% | D+14.4 | D+5.2 |
| 2016 | 51.8% | 42.6% | D+9.2 | D+3.9 |
| 2012 | 51.9% | 46.7% | D+5.3 | R+1.3 |
| 2008 | 52.9% | 46.3% | D+6.6 | D+17.1 |
| 2004 | 44.4% | 55.0% | R+10.6 | D+1.3 |
| 2000 | 42.8% | 54.6% | R+11.8 | R+3.0 |
| 1996 | 42.1% | 50.9% | R+8.8 | D+1.3 |
| 1992 | 37.8% | 48.0% | R+10.1 | D+16.4 |
| 1988 | 36.2% | 62.8% | R+26.6 | D+3.0 |
| 1984 | 35.0% | 64.5% | R+29.6 | R+12.1 |
| 1980 | 38.9% | 56.4% | R+17.5 | R+6.5 |
| 1976 | 43.5% | 54.5% | R+11.0 | D+32.7 |
| 1972 | 27.3% | 71.0% | R+43.7 | R+26.8 |
| 1968 | 30.3% | 47.2% | R+16.9 | R+5.6 |
| 1964 | 44.3% | 55.6% | R+11.2 | D+7.5 |
| 1960 | 40.3% | 59.0% | R+18.8 | D+11.2 |
| 1956 | 27.6% | 57.6% | R+29.9 | R+12.8 |
| 1952 | 41.3% | 58.5% | R+17.2 | R+29.3 |
| 1948 | 49.4% | 37.2% | D+12.1 | — |
What defines Richmond, VA?
Richmond, VA has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (5D, 1R) — a genuine swing geography. It has a racially mixed, moderately educated electorate — the suburban swing demographic that decides close elections.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA
Educated rural competitive 2
Columbus, OH
Educated rural competitive 2
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
Educated rural competitive 2
Indianapolis-Carmel-Greenwood, IN
Educated rural competitive 2
Rochester, NY
Educated rural competitive 2
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
Educated rural competitive 2
Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk, VA-NC
Educated rural competitive 2
Columbia, SC
Educated rural competitive 2
Counties in Richmond, VA
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield | 378K | D+9.0 | 112,869 | 94,030 | 209,730 | 28.9% |
| Henrico | 336K | D+28.9 | 115,040 | 62,882 | 180,642 | 24.9% |
| Richmond City | 229K | D+66.3 | 88,710 | 17,041 | 108,143 | 14.9% |
| Hanover | 113K | R+25.8 | 26,733 | 45,569 | 73,087 | 10.1% |
| Prince George | 43K | R+21.3 | 6,842 | 10,590 | 17,596 | 2.4% |
| Petersburg City | 34K | D+72.8 | 11,219 | 1,702 | 13,077 | 1.8% |
| Powhatan | 32K | R+44.1 | 5,734 | 14,918 | 20,841 | 2.9% |
| Dinwiddie | 28K | R+23.1 | 5,942 | 9,549 | 15,589 | 2.1% |
| Goochland | 26K | R+18.6 | 7,875 | 11,521 | 19,616 | 2.7% |
| New Kent | 25K | R+31.9 | 5,641 | 10,974 | 16,744 | 2.3% |
| Hopewell City | 23K | D+13.8 | 5,078 | 3,838 | 9,006 | 1.2% |
| King William | 19K | R+40.6 | 3,388 | 8,080 | 11,561 | 1.6% |
| Colonial Heights City | 18K | R+32.5 | 2,982 | 5,883 | 8,941 | 1.2% |
| Amelia | 13K | R+44.4 | 2,214 | 5,776 | 8,032 | 1.1% |
| Sussex | 11K | D+4.4 | 2,539 | 2,322 | 4,892 | 0.7% |
| King and Queen | 7K | R+25.7 | 1,536 | 2,608 | 4,173 | 0.6% |
| Charles City | 7K | D+10.8 | 2,384 | 1,917 | 4,341 | 0.6% |
17 countiesTotal votes: 726,011
Ask the Historian
Explore Richmond, VA's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2024, Republicans in 2004
- College attainment is 41% — 8pp above the national average. Similar education levels correlate with Democratic lean nationally
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Richmond, VA | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 54.7% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(14) | 28.1% | 12.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 8.4% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.3% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 4.2% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.8% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.3% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3) | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
53.1%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -24.5pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22.7% | 42.7% | — | — | |
| 12.0% | 22.7% | — | — | |
| 9.1% | 17.2% | — | — | |
| 5.8% | 10.9% | — | — | |
| 3.1% | 5.8% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.9% | 1.7% | — | — |
| 0.4% | 0.7% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 46.9% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Richmond, VA metro area? 1,341,248 residents across 17 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
41% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 8pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+16 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
1.3M
Share of U.S. population
0.40%
Voting-age population
76.1%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$88,518
Poverty rate
10.0%
College degree
41.1%
Homeownership
67.0%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
39.1 yrs
Age 18–29
15.7%
Age 65+
16.7%
Foreign born
8.9%
Non-English at home
11.8%
English only
88.2%
Turnout in Richmond, VA
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
71.1%
+0.7pp
1,020,408
1988–2024
How competitive is Richmond, VA?
Likely DAvg margin: D+12.3 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+6.6
2012
D+5.3
2016
D+9.2
2020
D+14.4
2024
D+13.4
9.2pp
1
D+9.8
Do voters in Richmond, VA split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Moderate splitting (72/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | D+13.4 | D+15.4 | 2.0pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 6.5pp
Located In
Richmond, VA sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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